Chargers Over Under Wins 2026 Prediction & Odds

Below, bettors can find NFL odds for the Los Angeles Chargers’ 2026 win total and my Chargers win total prediction.

Chargers Win Total Odds 2026

The Chargers’ season win total is set at 10.5 games.

Current odds price over 10.5 wins at +120 while under 10.5 wins is priced at -145.

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all AFC West teams:

• Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5 Wins
• Los Angeles Chargers: 10.5 Wins
• Denver Broncos: 9.5 Wins
• Las Vegas Raiders: 5.5 Wins

Chargers Win Total Prediction 2026

Los Angeles Chargers Under 10.5 Wins (-130)

Based on current implied probability, the Chargers are predicted to finish under 10.5 wins with 59.2% confidence. Given likely defensive regression from the Chargers and a reliance on victories in close games last year, I predict the Chargers finish Under 10.5 Wins (-130).

Many corollaries exist between the 2025 Chargers and 49ers. Both teams overachieved despite crippling injuries.

Specific to the Chargers, the team won 11 games despite losing 106.2 adjusted games to injury. Only five teams sustained a higher AGL than Jim Harbaugh’s team.

Los Angeles dropped from ninth to 17th in DVOA annually. Most of that stemmed from the offense, which fell from 12th to 21st year over year.

Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater both missed a ton of time. Those absences left the Chargers’ line vulnerable, which – at full health – features two strong tackles and a weaker interior.

Heading into 2026, Los Angeles made some notable changes that should bolster the offense. Both tackles will return to a new offense coordinated by McDaniel.

I also like the additions of center Tyler Biadasz and blocking tight end Charlie Kolar.

The concern, though, is that Los Angeles takes some time to gel in McDaniels’ system. Further driving my belief in under 10.5 wins is the defensive state.

Jesse Minter leaves behind a defense that has largely faced easy opposition. In 2024, the unit ranked ninth in DVOA against the 27th-hardest set of offenses.

Last season, the team finished 10th despite 50 adjusted games lost to injury. That ranking came against the 29th-hardest set of offenses, including only two games vs. top-10 DVOA offenses.

Next season, the unit projects to take a massive step forward in defensive difficulty.

Based on 2025 offensive DVOA averages, the Chargers go from a schedule averaging a -4% DVOA rating to a +0.5% rating. By a two-year average, it’s a +1.2% average.

The latter figure qualifies as the eighth-hardest average across the entire NFL. Yet, the Chargers’ win total received an upgrade year over year (9.5 to 10.5).

I recognize injuries affect these outputs. However, the Chargers still finished 4-1 in field-goal games and 6-2 in one-possession contests last season.

Harbaugh’s team also finished 5-1 in the division with their only loss coming in Week 18 at Denver.

Per FTN Fantasy, Los Angeles finished 2.5 wins over expected due to the close game luck.

Are there some winnable games on the schedule? Unquestionably. Harbaugh’s team gets the Jets, Dolphins and Cardinals next season.

But the Raiders should improve to the point where the division plays more difficult than last season.

Pair that with 11 games against teams with win totals set at 9.5 or higher, and I predict the Chargers regress by at least one win.