Chargers Over Under Wins, 2026 NFL Win Totals

For the 2026 NFL season, the Chargers win total sits at 10.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook.

Los Angeles won 11 games in 2026, clearing this benchmark for the second straight season. However, injury issues relegated the Chargers to a wild-card round exit against the Patriots.

Year over year, Los Angeles saw a lot of transition. Mike McDaniel replaces Greg Roman as offensive coordinator, while Chris O’Leary replaces Jesse Minter as defensive coordinator.

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Los Angeles’ 2026 win total and my Chargers win total prediction.

Chargers Win Total Odds

The Chargers’ season win total is set at 10.5 games.

Oddsmakers shade the Chargers’ win total odds slightly to the under. Currently, over 10.5 wins is priced at +110 while under 10.5 wins is priced at -130.

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all AFC West teams:

• Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5 Wins

• Los Angeles Chargers: 10.5 Wins

• Denver Broncos: 9.5 Wins

• Las Vegas Raiders: 5.5 Wins

Chargers Win Total Prediction 2026

Based on likely defensive regression from the Chargers and a reliance on victories in close games last year, I predict the Chargers finish Under 10.5 Wins (-130).

Many corollaries exist between the 2025 Chargers and 49ers. Both teams overachieved despite crippling injuries.

Specific to the Chargers, the team won 11 games despite losing 106.2 adjusted games to injury. Only five teams sustained a higher AGL than Jim Harbaugh’s team.

Los Angeles dropped from ninth to 17th in DVOA annually. Most of that stemmed from the offense, which fell from 12th to 21st year over year.

Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater both missed a ton of time. Those absences left the Chargers’ line vulnerable, which – at full health – features two strong tackles and a weaker interior.

Heading into 2026, Los Angeles made some notable changes that should bolster the offense. Both tackles will return to a new offense coordinated by McDaniel.

I also like the additions of center Tyler Biadasz and blocking tight end Charlie Kolar.

The concern, though, is that Los Angeles takes some time to gel in McDaniels’ system. Further driving my belief in under 10.5 wins is the defensive state.

Jesse Minter leaves behind a defense that has largely faced easy opposition. In 2024, the unit ranked ninth in DVOA against the 27th-hardest set of offenses.

Last season, the team finished 10th despite 50 adjusted games lost to injury. That ranking came against the 29th-hardest set of offenses, including only two games vs. top-10 DVOA offenses.

Next season, the unit projects to take a massive step forward in defensive difficulty.

Based on 2025 offensive DVOA averages, the Chargers go from a schedule averaging a -4% DVOA rating to a +0.5% rating. By a two-year average, it’s a +1.2% average.

The latter figure qualifies as the eighth-hardest average across the entire NFL. Yet, the Chargers’ win total received an upgrade year over year (9.5 to 10.5).

I recognize injuries affect these outputs. However, the Chargers still finished 4-1 in field-goal games and 6-2 in one-possession contests last season.

Harbaugh’s team also finished 5-1 in the division with their only loss coming in Week 18 at Denver.

Per FTN Fantasy, Los Angeles finished 2.5 wins over expected due to the close game luck.

Are there some winnable games on the schedule? Unquestionably. Harbaugh’s team gets the Jets, Dolphins and Cardinals next season.

But the Raiders should improve to the point where the division plays more difficult than last season.

Pair that with 11 games against teams with win totals set at 9.5 or higher, and I predict the Chargers regress by at least one win.

Most Wins in Chargers History

The Chargers’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 14. They went 14-2 in 2006 before losing in the Divisional Round.

Fewest Wins in Chargers History

The Chargers’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is one. In 2000, the Chargers posted a 1-15 record.

They also recorded a pair of two-win seasons in 1973 and 1975.