Below, bettors can find NFL odds for the AFC West division winner and my AFC West prediction.
AFC West Odds 2026
AFC West Prediction 2026
Based on Kansas City’s easy schedule, positive regression metrics and presumed improved results in the division, I predict the Kansas City Chiefs (+180) win the AFC West.
The more I think about this division, the more I become skeptical of Denver and Los Angeles.
Both teams built their 2025 success off defense, particularly Denver. Of the four outcomes in this division, a repeat title by Denver would surprise me the most.
I outlined my case in my 2026 NFL playoff predictions. Essentially, Denver lacks the defensive depth to handle a tougher schedule as a massive regression candidate.
Then there’s Los Angeles, which lost defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. They’ve also built their defensive success over the last two years against a very easy schedule:
- 2024: 9th in defensive DVOA vs. 27th-hardest schedule
- 2025: 10th in defensive DVOA vs. 29th-hardest schedule
Las Vegas offers intrigue purely based on price. However, the lack of receiving depth gives me pause when comparing the team to Kansas City and Los Angeles.
Kansas City offers the highest offensive ceiling in the division. It also appears Patrick Mahomes is trending toward a return for the start of the regular season.
He’ll lead a team facing the division’s easiest schedule by 2026 NFL win totals.
Granted, the Chiefs play a harder set of unique opponents than Denver, but I trust their ascent within the division.
Kansas City dropped from 5-1 in AFC West contests two years ago to 1-5 in 2025. Two of those losses came with Chris Oladokun quarterbacking the offense.
I remain skeptical of the defense, but I like the addition of Kenneth Walker III to the offense.
First-round pick Mansoor Delane helps at corner after the departures of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.
Last year, Kansas City’s five divisional losses came by 21 combined points. I expect some positive regression in that category as the Chiefs reclaim the AFC West.
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