NFL Picks & Predictions: AFC West Division Winner

Entering the 2024-25 NFL season, the key question for the AFC West is whether any team can end Kansas City’s dominant run. 

Under the guidance of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City has yet to lose their division. Last season, they finished three games ahead of second. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for the AFC West division winner and my best bet. 

NFL Odds – AFC West Division Winner

• Kansas City Chiefs: -200
• Los Angeles Chargers: +300
• Denver Broncos: +1000
• Las Vegas Raiders: +1100

NFL Picks & Predictions – AFC West Division Winner

Kansas City Chiefs (-200) to Win AFC West – Parlay Piece

Frankly, the Chiefs may not be high enough to win this division, given the moves their rivals have made this offseason. 

Los Angeles gets Justin Herbert back from injury, but he’s lost Keenan Allen and Mike Williams as receivers. 

Denver lost Russell Wilson and Jerry Jeudy, arguably their two best offensive weapons, while the Raiders don’t have a quarterback or a reliable running back. 

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have quietly gone about their business. They signed Chris Jones to an extension and, for now, still have L’Jarius Sneed at corner. 

Even if Sneed departs, the Chiefs remain leaps and bounds ahead of their divisional foes. 

According to ftnfantasy.com, the Chiefs finished the 2023 regular season fifth in DVOA. 

The Chargers, Raiders and Broncos finished 19th, 21st and 24th, respectively. 

That said, this division should prove closer than last year’s margin, especially with the Chargers returning Herbert and bringing in Jim Harbaugh as head coach. 

Last year, Los Angeles finished 0-7 in games decided by three or fewer points, 3-8 in games decided by seven or fewer points and 0-8 against playoff teams. 

Plus, although their defense ranked 26th in DVOA, that came against the 11th-hardest set of opposing defenses. 

At the same time, the Chargers couldn’t even produce a straight up win in Week 18 against a Chiefs side resting all their starters. 

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is also 8-2 SU in his career against the Chargers. 

Consider, too, that the Chiefs play only seven of their 17 games next season against playoff teams. Despite finishing last in the division, Los Angeles plays six such games. 

The Chargers also play only one fewer game against a team with a winning record from last season. 

Add in all their departures this offseason, and I’ll be quite surprised if Harbaugh can snatch the division in his first year. 

I’m not opposed to playing -200 on its own, but this is also a good parlay piece alongside the 49ers to Win the NFC West.