Broncos Over Under Wins, 2026 NFL Win Totals

For the 2026 NFL season, the Broncos win total sits at 9.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Denver radically outperformed expectations in 2025. In Sean Payton’s second year at the helm, Denver improved by four wins, earning an AFC West crown and the AFC’s top seed. 

Ultimately, Denver fell at home to the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. Bo Nix suffered an injury in the divisional round, but he appears on schedule to return for the 2025-26 season. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Denver’s 2026 win total and my Broncos win total prediction. 

Broncos Win Total Odds

The Broncos’ season win total is set at 9.5 games. 

Oddsmakers rate the over as the more likely outcome. Denver finishing over 9.5 wins is currently priced at -125. 

Conversely, the Broncos under 9.5 wins is priced at +105. 

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all AFC West teams:

• Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5 Wins
• Los Angeles Chargers: 10.5 Wins
• Denver Broncos: 9.5 Wins
• Las Vegas Raiders: 5.5 Wins

Broncos Win Total Prediction 2026

Based on Denver’s fortune within the division and extreme luck in one-possession games last year, I predict the Broncos finish Under 9.5 Wins (-105) in 2026. 

Denver received a lot of breaks in the 2026 season. Of their 14 wins, 11 came by a possession or less, with six of those 11 coming by a field goal or less. 

What’s even more concerning about those records is that Denver often played from behind. Then, the team suddenly found its groove and dominated in the fourth quarter. 

Four of Denver’s wins came in games where the team trailed by at least eight points at one point. That includes two wins from 10+ point deficits. 

Additionally, the defense received a lot of breaks in its schedule. Of the six teams that finished with a -10% or higher defensive DVOA, no team played an easier schedule than Denver (28th). 

From a quarterback standpoint, the schedule featured a lot of breaks. 

In four games, Denver’s defense faced a backup quarterback. Week 4: Jake Browning instead of Joe Burrow. Week 13: Marcus Mariota instead of Jayden Daniels. 

To close out the season, Denver played Chris Oladokun and Trey Lance instead of Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. 

Across the entire season, Denver faced the league’s sixth-most snaps against QBs ranked 30th or worse in EPA per play. 

Offensively, the unit looked like a disaster unless presented with a bad defense. 

Only six teams faced easier defensive schedules than the Broncos. That includes six games against the seven-worst defenses by DVOA. 

In those seven games, Denver averaged 23.6 points per game. In all other games, the average drops to 21.5 points per game. 

Next year, the schedule projects to play significantly tougher on defense. 

By 2025 offensive DVOA percentages, Denver’s schedule goes from a -3.9% rating last year to a -0.6% rating in 2026. 

The schedule contains winnable games on paper. However, this team showed it can play down to competition last year (see: 13-11 vs. Jets, 20-12 vs. Titans). 

To me, I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver dropped games against Arizona, Carolina or Pittsburgh. Additionally, the eight-game home schedule is significantly more difficult. 

Six of Denver’s eight home games come against teams with a win total set at 9.5 or higher. The defense also projects to face six games against QBs ranked ninth or higher in adj. EPA per play. 

This season, that same defense faced only four such games. 

If the defense – which suffered the third-fewest injuries in the league – takes a step back, I predict the team regresses on the whole. 

Most Wins in Broncos History

The Broncos’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 14. In 1998, the Broncos finished with a 14-2 record and captured the Super Bowl. Denver matched that win total in 2025, reaching the AFC Championship.

Fewest Wins in Broncos History

The Broncos’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is two. Denver has finished with a two-win season three times in the franchise’s history, in 1963, 1964, and 1982.