Broncos Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Broncos win total sits at 9.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Denver’s 2024 campaign overwhelmingly surpassed expectations. Sean Payton led the Broncos to 10 wins in 2024, easily clearing their preseason win total of 5.5. 

The Broncos ultimately fell in the wild-card round to the Bills. If the Broncos clear their win total this year, it will mark their first back-to-back success since 2015. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Denver’s 2025 win total and my Broncos win total prediction. 

Broncos Win Total Odds

The Broncos’ season win total is set at 9.5 games. 

Oddsmakers rate the under as the more likely outcome. Denver finishing under 9.5 wins is priced at -125 for an implied probability of 55.6%. 

Conversely, the Broncos over 9.5 wins is priced at +105 for an implied probability of 48.8%. 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all AFC West teams:

• Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 Wins
• Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5 Wins
• Denver Broncos: 9.5 Wins
• Las Vegas Raiders: 6.5 Wins

Broncos Win Total Prediction 2025

Denver Broncos Over 9.5 Wins (+105)

Based on Denver’s expected improvement in close games and their likely ability to retain a strong defense, I predict the Broncos finish Over 9.5 Wins (+105). 

BET: Broncos Over 9.5 Wins @ +100

BET: Broncos Under 9.5 Wins @ -120  

The phrase I’m using to describe my feelings toward the Broncos this year is “cautious confidence.” 

The Broncos built their 2024 success on the back of a strong defense. Denver finished 9-2 in games where they allowed under 20 points compared to 1-5 otherwise. 

Denver ranked fourth in defensive DVOA, first in EPA per play, and second in defensive success rate. 

The concern with the Broncos is that defense is generally more regressive year over year than offense. Last season, the Broncos finished 15th in offensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Key to Denver’s 2025 profile is a) whether their defense regresses and b) how much they regress. 

To estimate the potential fall, I looked at teams that ranked fifth or better in defense DVOA and their ranking the following year. 

Of those 15 teams from 2021 onward, eight remained 10th or better in DVOA, with five of those teams retaining their ranking in the top-five. 

The potential concern? Of the seven other teams, five regressed to 18th or worse in defensive DVOA the following year. 

The good news for the Broncos is, on paper, they don’t face as difficult an offensive schedule in 2025. 

Last year, the Broncos’ opponents averaged an offensive DVOA rating of 16.6. This year, their 2024 averages come to a rating of 17.3. 

While it’s reasonable to assume the Raiders improve – they ranked 29th offensively last year – the Broncos also face a number of difficult offenses at home. 

Of their five games against teams that ranked 10th or better in offensive DVOA last year, three come at home. 

Under Payton, Denver produced better results at home. Over two seasons, they finished 11-6 in Denver vs 7-10 on the road. 

If Bo Nix takes a step forward in 2025, I like the profile of this team that ran slightly unlucky in 2024. 

Last year, six of Denver’s seven losses came by a touchdown or less, with Denver finishing 1-6 in such games. 

Given that three of those losses came within the division, I like Denver to clear their win total this year. 

Most Wins in Broncos History

The Broncos’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 14. In 1998, the Broncos finished with a 14-2 record and captured the Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Broncos History

The Broncos’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is two. Denver has finished with a two-win season three times in the franchise’s history, in 1963, 1964, and 1982.