Memphis vs South Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

• The Memphis Tigers are a -6.5 point favorite vs. the South Florida Bulls
• Memphis vs. South Florida Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN

Memphis (7-2) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on South Florida (6-3) on Nov. 12 in Tampa, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 pm.

The Memphis Tigers are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (+115).

The Memphis vs. South Florida Over/Under is 48.5 total points.

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Memphis vs. South Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Memphis vs South Florida Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Memphis will win this game with 65.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Memphis Tigers and the South Florida Bulls, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Memphis vs South Florida Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts South Florida will cover the spread with 53.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on South Florida Bulls vs Memphis Tigers and all games with BetMGM

Memphis Best Bets Today

• Memphis has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• Memphis has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
• Memphis has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• Memphis has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.48 Units / 11% ROI)
• Memphis have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.40 Units / 19% ROI)

South Florida Best Bets Today

• South Florida has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
• South Florida has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.10 Units / 1% ROI)
• South Florida have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
• South Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.55 Units / 7% ROI)
• South Florida has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.55 Units / 7% ROI)

Memphis Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Memphis Tigers is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.55 Units / 5.53% ROI).

• Memphis is 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.07 Units / 8.57% ROI
• Memphis is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.68 Units / 26.88% ROI
• Memphis is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.55 Units / -36.11% ROI

South Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

South Florida Bulls is 4-5 against the spread this college football season (-1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI).

• South Florida is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.25 Units / 3.18% ROI
• South Florida is 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
• South Florida is 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI

Memphis: Keys to the Game vs. South Florida

Memphis was 10-1 (.909) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .526

Memphis was 9-1 (.900) when rushing for more than 100 yards last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .572

Memphis was 7-1 (.875) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

Memphis is winless (0-3) when making less than 7 explosive plays since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .327

South Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Memphis

South Florida was 1-7 (.125) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-13th-worst in FBS; Average: .420

South Florida was 6-1 (.857) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .570

South Florida was 6-1 (.857) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-13th-best in FBS; Average: .604

South Florida is 12-3 (.800) when not throwing an interception since the 2024 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .646

Matchup Notes for Memphis vs. South Florida

South Florida’s WRs gained 3,037 yards on 212 receptions (14.3 YPR) last season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Memphis’s defense allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Florida gained 3,584 yards on 268 receptions (13.4 YPR) last season — T-18th-best among FBS skill players. Memphis’s defense allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Florida’s RBs gained 254 yards on 27 receptions (9.4 YPR) last season — T-30th-best among FBS RBs. Memphis’s defense allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.

Memphis gained 2,945 yards on 275 receptions (just 10.7 YPR) last season — T-28th-worst among FBS skill players. South Florida’s defense allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception last season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.

Memphis’s RBs averaged just 5.5 yards after the catch last season — T-9th-worst among FBS RBs. South Florida’s defense allowed just 5.6 RAC to RBs last season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.

Memphis’s RBs averaged just 5.5 yards after the catch last season — T-9th-worst among FBS RBs. South Florida’s defense allowed just 10.6 RAC last season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Memphis Offensive Stats & Trends

Memphis have averaged 22.3 yards per completion (334 yards/15 completions) with over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 12.0

Memphis RBs picked up first downs on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Memphis QBs had 20 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down last season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Memphis Skill Players have averaged 22.3 yards per reception (334 yards/15 catches) with over 10 yards to go this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.9

Memphis WRs have averaged 28.2 yards per reception (254 yards/9 catches) with over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.6

South Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

South Florida have thrown 7 TDs and no interceptions this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2.4

South Florida have not been intercepted (216 pass attempts) this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 43.8

South Florida RBs had 54 receiving yards on 1st down last week– 3rd-most among FBS Teams

South Florida’s WRs gained 3,037 yards on 212 receptions (14.3 YPR) last season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Memphis’s defense allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.

South Florida have thrown 0 interceptions in 9 games this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 0.7

Memphis Defensive Stats & Trends

Memphis did not record a sack (27 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.8

Memphis opponents has averaged 8.3 Passing Attempts per TD (25 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 3.9

The Memphis defense has allowed scores on 16% of opponent drives (26/166) in the 2nd half since the 2024 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 23%

The Memphis defense has allowed scores on 14% of opponent drives (12/85) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– best in FBS; Average: 24%

Memphis opponents has averaged 8.3 Passing Attempts per TD (25 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.9

South Florida Defensive Stats & Trends

South Florida has intercepted 2 of 260 attempts (130.0 pass attempts per int.) this season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 40.6

South Florida has intercepted 2 of 260 attempts (130.0 pass attempts per int.) this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 40.0

South Florida tackled opponents for a loss on 20 of 79 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

South Florida opponents has averaged 32.1 Passing Attempts per TD (738 Pass Attempts/23 Passing TDs) since the 2024 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 20.0

South Florida has allowed 6 rushing TDs on 320 carries (53.3 Carries Per TD) this season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 22.4

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