- The Pittsburgh Panthers are a -3.5 point favorite vs. the Florida State Seminoles
- Florida State vs. Pittsburgh Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN
Florida State (4-5) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on Pittsburgh (6-3) on Nov. 13 in Pittsburgh, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 pm.
The Pittsburgh Panthers are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).
The Florida State vs. Pittsburgh Over/Under is 53.5 total points.
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Florida State vs. Pittsburgh Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Florida State | +3.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | +138 |
| Pittsburgh | -3.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -165 |
Florida State vs Pittsburgh Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Pittsburgh will win this game with 60.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Florida State Seminoles and the Pittsburgh Panthers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Florida State vs Pittsburgh Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida State will cover the spread with 57.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Florida State Best Bets Today
- Florida State has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Florida State have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.55 Units / 22% ROI)
Pittsburgh Best Bets Today
- Pittsburgh has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
- Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Pittsburgh has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Pittsburgh have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Pittsburgh has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.55 Units / 36% ROI)
Florida State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Florida State Seminoles is 4-4 against the spread this college football season (-0.33 Units / -3.31% ROI).
- Florida State is 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -5.53% ROI
- Florida State is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.47 Units / 4.69% ROI
- Florida State is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.35% ROI
Pittsburgh Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Pittsburgh Panthers is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.67 Units / 6.82% ROI).
- Pittsburgh is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Pittsburgh is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
- Pittsburgh is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
Florida State: Keys to the Game vs. Pittsburgh
Florida State was winless (0-4) when in a one score game last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Florida State was 1-10 (.091) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462
Florida State was winless (0-8) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .418
Florida State was 1-9 (.100) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .500
Pittsburgh: Keys to the Game vs. Florida State
Pittsburgh was 6-4 (.600) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .442
Pittsburgh is 11-3 (.786) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2024 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .642
Pittsburgh is 12-4 (.750) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2024 season– T-28th-best in FBS; Average: .612
Pittsburgh is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2024 season– T-14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .700
Matchup Notes for Florida State vs. Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh’s offense threw for 3,553 passing yards in 13 games (273.3 YPG) last season — 20th-best among FBS offenses. Florida State’s defense allowed just 190.8 passing yards per game last season — 2nd-best among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh’s QBs threw for 3,553 passing yards in 13 games (273.3 YPG) last season — 18th-best among FBS teams. Florida State’s defense allowed just 190.8 passing yards per game last season — 27th-best among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh’s TEs had 57 receptions in 13 games (4.4 per game) last season — 5th-best among ACC TEs. Florida State’s defense allowed just 16.9 receptions per game last season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Florida State’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 13.6% of 339 attempts last season — T-11th-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 10.7% of attempts last season — 5th-worst among ACC defenses.
Florida State’s RBs averaged 11.2 yards after the catch last season — T-9th-best among FBS RBs. Pittsburgh’s defense allowed just 4.9 RAC to RBs last season — T-6th-best among FBS defenses.
Florida State has 524 receptions in 33 games (just 15.9 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among Power 5 skill players. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 21.3 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among ACC defenses.
Florida State Offensive Stats & Trends
Florida State WRs have averaged 17.4 yards per reception (3,794 yards/218 catches) since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.4
Florida State have thrown 3 TDs on 30 pass attempts (one TD every 10.0 Pass Attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 3.7
Florida State have averaged 20.5 yards per completion (307 yards/15 completions) with over 10 yards to go this season– 3rd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 12.0
Florida State Skill Players have averaged 20.5 yards per reception (307 yards/15 catches) with over 10 yards to go this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.9
Florida State Skill Players have averaged 15.1 yards per reception (5,208 yards/345 catches) since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.0
Pittsburgh Offensive Stats & Trends
Pittsburgh RBs picked up first downs on 6 receptions in the Red Zone last season– most among FBS Teams
Pittsburgh Skill Players caught 12 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter last season– T-most among FBS Teams
Pittsburgh RBs averaged 8.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (832 yards / 104 touches) on 2nd down last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4
Pittsburgh Skill Players caught 7 touchdown passes in close and late situations last season– most among Power Conference Teams
Pittsburgh WRs caught 6 touchdown passes in close and late situations last season– most among FBS Teams
Florida State Defensive Stats & Trends
Florida State forced 4 fumbles on 477 carries (119.2 Carries Per Fumble) last season– T-6th-worst in FBS; Average: 43.4
Florida State has forced 2 fumbles on 334 carries (167.0 Carries Per Fumble) this season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 46.6
Florida State intercepted 4 of 324 attempts (81.0 pass attempts per int.) last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 34.9
Florida State has forced 2 fumbles on 334 carries (167.0 Carries Per Fumble) this season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: 46.4
Florida State allowed opponents to catch 18 of 22 passes (82% Reception Pct) in close and late situations last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%
Pittsburgh Defensive Stats & Trends
Pittsburgh allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 47 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%
Pittsburgh has tackled opponents for a loss on 60 of 274 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) this season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.
Pittsburgh did not record a sack (47 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 16.2
Pittsburgh has tackled opponents for a loss on 156 of 727 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) since the 2024 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.
Pittsburgh allowed passes of 20+ yards on 18 of 89 attempts (20%) on 3rd and long last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%
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