Michigan vs Ohio State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2022, 9:10 AM
  • Ohio State (11-0) are -7.5 point favorites vs Michigan (11-0)
  • Total (Over/Under): 57 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Michigan Wolverines (11-0) visit Ohio Stadium to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0) on Nov. 26. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST in Columbus.

Ohio State are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-115).

The Michigan vs. Ohio State Over/Under is 57 total points.

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Michigan vs. Ohio State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Michigan+7.5 -10557 -110+240
Ohio State -7.5 -11557 -110-300

Michigan vs Ohio State Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Ohio State will win this game with 64.6% confidence.

Michigan vs Ohio State Spread Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ohio State will cover the spread with 69.9% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Michigan and Ohio State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Michigan Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Michigan players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Cornelius Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.80 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Blake Corum has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Roman Wilson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • J.J. McCarthy has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Blake Corum has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.50 Units / 20% ROI)

Best Ohio State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Ohio State players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • C.J. Stroud has hit the TD Passes Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+8.45 Units / 72% ROI)
  • TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 49% ROI)
  • C.J. Stroud has hit the Completions Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.95 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 54% ROI)
  • C.J. Stroud has hit the Passing Yards Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+3.75 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Miyan Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 75% ROI)
  • TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Emeka Egbuka has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba has hit the Receptions Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+1.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 19 games (+15.25 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Michigan has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+8.87 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Michigan have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.40 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Michigan has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Michigan has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Ohio State has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games (+9.50 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Ohio State has hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.40 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Ohio State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Ohio State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.85 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Ohio State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.68 Units / 13% ROI)

Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan has gone 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI).

  • Michigan is 6-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +6 Units / 10.28% ROI
  • Michigan is 2-8 when betting the Over for -6.8 Units / -56.2% ROI
  • Michigan is 8-2 when betting the Under for +5.8 Units / 47.93% ROI

Ohio State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ohio State has gone 4-5 against the spread this college football season (-1.5 Units / 0% ROI).

  • Ohio State is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 12.55% ROI
  • Ohio State is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
  • Ohio State is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI

Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio State

#3 Michigan is undefeated (5-0) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .495

#3 Michigan is undefeated (5-0) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– best in FBS; Average: .494

#3 Michigan is undefeated (10-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays — tied for best in FBS; Average: .511

#3 Michigan is 15-2 (.882) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .421

Ohio State: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan

#2 Ohio State is undefeated (11-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .385

#2 Ohio State is 21-1 (.955) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2021 season– best in FBS; Average: .495

#2 Ohio State is 15-2 (.750) when passing for more than 200 yards since the 2021 season– 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .409

#2 Ohio State is undefeated (10-0) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — tied for best in FBS; Average: .497

Matchup Notes for Michigan vs. Ohio State

Ohio State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 16.7% of 300 attempts this season — fourth-best among FBS offenses. Michigan’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.1% of attempts this season — second-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Ohio State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 16.7% of 300 attempts this season — fourth-best among FBS offenses. Michigan’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.1% of attempts this season — second-worst among P5 defenses.

Ohio State’s WRs has gained 6,517 yards on 424 receptions (15.4 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for second-best among Power 5 WRs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — tied for second-best among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan’s offense has 30 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for fourth-most among FBS offenses. Ohio State’s defense has allowed 5 rushing TDs this season — tied for third-fewest among FBS defenses.

Michigan’s RBs has 23 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for fifth-most among FBS RBs. Ohio State’s defense has allowed 5 rushing TDs this season — tied for third-fewest among P5 defenses.

Michigan’s offense has 54 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — fourth-most among FBS offenses. Ohio State’s defense has allowed 19 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-fewest among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends

#3 Michigan RBs have averaged 14.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (419 yards / 30 touches) on 3rd and long since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.3

#3 Michigan RBs have averaged 196.1 rushing yards per game (4,706/24) since the 2021 season– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 132.3

#3 Michigan RBs have averaged 215.0 rushing yards per game (2,150/10) — 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 131.3

#3 Michigan RBs have rushed for 45 TDs in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– most among FBS Teams

#3 Michigan TEs have caught 4 touchdown passes in close and late situations since last season– tied for 3rd most among Power 5 Teams

Ohio State Offensive Stats & Trends

Ohio State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 16.7% of 300 attempts this season — fourth-best among FBS offenses. Michigan’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.1% of attempts this season — second-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Ohio State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 16.7% of 300 attempts this season — fourth-best among FBS offenses. Michigan’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.1% of attempts this season — second-worst among P5 defenses.

Ohio State’s WRs has gained 6,517 yards on 424 receptions (15.4 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for second-best among Power 5 WRs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — tied for second-best among Big Ten defenses.

#2 Ohio State WRs have caught 63 touchdown passes since the 2021 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

#2 Ohio State Skill Players have 122 receptions for 20 or more yards since last season– most among Power 5 Teams

Michigan Wolverines Defensive Stats & Trends

#3 Michigan opponents has averaged 58.8 Passing Attempts per TD (294 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) this season– best in FBS; Average: 20.8

#3 Michigan opponents has averaged 58.8 Passing Attempts per TD (294 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 22.7

#3 Michigan has allowed 5 touchdowns on 154 completions (30.8 Completions Per TD) this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 12.5

#3 Michigan has no interceptions and 12 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 9.4

#3 Michigan has no interceptions and 12 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.4

Ohio State Buckeyes Defensive Stats & Trends

#2 Ohio State has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 351 carries (70.2 Carries Per TD) — 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 24.2

#2 Ohio State has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 351 carries (70.2 Carries Per TD) — 3rd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 25.3

#2 Ohio State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 57 rushing attempts (5% TFL%) on 3rd and short since last season– 5th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%.

#2 Ohio State has allowed 4 rushing TDs on 35 carries (8.8 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.7

#2 Ohio State has allowed 4 rushing TDs on 35 carries (8.8 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 4.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.