Michigan State vs Notre Dame Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

• The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are a -29.5 point favorite vs. the Michigan State Spartans
• Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
• TV Channel: NBC | PEAC

Michigan State (2-0) visit Notre Dame Stadium to take on Notre Dame (2-0) on Sep. 19 in South Bend, IN. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are betting favorites in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -29.5 (-108).

The Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Over/Under is 52.5 total points.

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Michigan State vs. Notre Dame Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Michigan State vs Notre Dame Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Notre Dame will win this game with 94.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Michigan State Spartans and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Michigan State vs Notre Dame Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan State will cover the spread with 64.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Michigan State Best Bets Today

• Michigan State have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
• Michigan State has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)
• Michigan State has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Michigan State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.30 Units / 5% ROI)

Notre Dame Best Bets Today

• Notre Dame has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 3% ROI)
• Notre Dame has hit the Moneyline in their last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 5% ROI)
• Notre Dame has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.90 Units / 5% ROI)
• Notre Dame have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
• Notre Dame has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.70 Units / 27% ROI)

Michigan State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan State Spartans is 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 45.45% ROI).

• Michigan State is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 15.27% ROI
• Michigan State is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
• Michigan State is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Notre Dame Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Notre Dame Fighting Irish is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).

• Notre Dame is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 5.88% ROI
• Notre Dame is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
• Notre Dame is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Michigan State: Keys to the Game vs. Notre Dame

Michigan State was 3-7 (.300) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-15th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .451

Michigan State was 1-5 (.167) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-19th-worst in FBS; Average: .414

Michigan State was 2-7 (.222) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Michigan State was 3-7 (.300) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-39th-worst in FBS; Average: .418

Notre Dame: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan State

Notre Dame was undefeated (11-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .632

Notre Dame was undefeated (10-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .628

Notre Dame was 5-1 (.833) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .631

Notre Dame was 12-1 (.923) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .647

Matchup Notes for Michigan State vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame gained 2,977 yards on 216 receptions (13.8 YPR) last season — T-3rd-best among Power 5 skill players. Michigan State’s defense allowed 11.5 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Notre Dame gained 2,977 yards on 216 receptions (13.8 YPR) last season — T-11th-best among FBS skill players. Michigan State’s defense allowed 11.5 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Notre Dame’s TEs gained 546 yards on 40 receptions (13.6 YPR) last season — 5th-best among P5 TEs. Michigan State’s defense allowed 11.5 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan State’s QBs rushed for 168 yards on 112 carries (just 1.5 YPC) last season — 33rd-worst among FBS teams. Notre Dame’s defense allowed just 3.0 YPC last season — T-9th-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan State’s TEs has 0.5 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2024 season — 4th-best among Big Ten TEs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 1.1 receiving touchdowns per game since the 2024 season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan State’s QBs has rushed for 188 yards on 128 carries (just 1.5 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-24th-worst among FBS teams. Notre Dame’s defense have allowed just 2.8 YPC since the 2024 season — T-6th-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan State Offensive Stats & Trends

Michigan State TEs had just one touchdown on 50 receptions last season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3

Michigan State WRs had no touchdowns on 18 receptions in close and late situations last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.9

Michigan State were sacked on 18% of pass attempts (17/95) in the 4th quarter last season– worst among Big Ten Offenses; Average: 7%

Michigan State were sacked on 18% of pass attempts (17/95) in the 4th quarter last season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 7%

Michigan State were sacked on 18% of pass attempts (17/95) in the 4th quarter last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Offenses; Average: 7%

Notre Dame Offensive Stats & Trends

Notre Dame RBs rushed for 11 TDs in the 1st quarter last season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Notre Dame QBs had 5 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down last week– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

Notre Dame Skill Players averaged 17.5 yards per reception (1,502 yards/86 catches) on 1st down last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.2

Notre Dame QBs rushed for 7 TDs in the 1st quarter last season– T-most among FBS Teams

Notre Dame averaged 17.5 yards per completion (1,502 yards/86 completions) on 1st down last season– 5th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 12.2

Michigan State Defensive Stats & Trends

Michigan State did not record a sack (51 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 16.2

Michigan State did not tackle opponents for a loss on any of 29 rushing attempts on 3rd and short last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 12%.

Michigan State had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 31.3

Michigan State did not record a sack (51 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.8

Michigan State had no interceptions and 15 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 10.7

Notre Dame Defensive Stats & Trends

Notre Dame forced 5 fumbles last week– T-most in FBS

Notre Dame averaged 1.75 interceptions per game (21/12) last season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 0.80

Notre Dame allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (11 completions/33 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– best in FBS; Average: 54%

Notre Dame opponents averaged 46.4 Passing Attempts per TD (371 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 20.1

Notre Dame did not tackle opponents for a loss on any of 46 rushing attempts on 3rd and short last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.

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