- The Liberty Flames are a -21 point favorite vs. the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
- Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
- TV Channel: CBSN
Middle Tennessee (5-4) visit Williams Stadium to take on Liberty (8-1) on Nov. 14 in Lynchburg, VA. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.
The Liberty Flames are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -21 (-105).
The Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty Over/Under is 52.5 total points.
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Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Middle Tennessee | +21 -130 | 52.5 -108 | +900 |
| Liberty | -21 -105 | 52.5 -120 | -1400 |
Middle Tennessee vs Liberty Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Liberty will win this game with 94.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and the Liberty Flames, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Middle Tennessee vs Liberty Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Middle Tennessee will cover the spread with 67.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Liberty Flames vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and all games with BetMGM
Middle Tennessee Best Bets Today
- Middle Tennessee has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+5.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.55 Units / 23% ROI)
Liberty Best Bets Today
- Liberty have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Liberty have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 5 games at home (+5.30 Units / 89% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+4.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.55 Units / 4% ROI)
Middle Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders is 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.75 Units / 27.92% ROI).
- Middle Tennessee is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 14.34% ROI
- Middle Tennessee is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.58 Units / 5.85% ROI
- Middle Tennessee is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.18% ROI
Liberty Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Liberty Flames is 7-2 against the spread this college football season (+4.8 Units / 48.63% ROI).
- Liberty is 8-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +7 Units / 9.05% ROI
- Liberty is 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.65 Units / -36.87% ROI
- Liberty is 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.65 Units / 26.77% ROI
Middle Tennessee: Keys to the Game vs. Liberty
Middle Tennessee was 1-9 (.100) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-8th-worst in FBS; Average: .418
Middle Tennessee was 2-9 (.182) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-12th-worst in FBS; Average: .479
Middle Tennessee is 6-9 (.400) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-35th-worst in FBS; Average: .551
Middle Tennessee is 2-7 (.222) when intercepting no passes since the 2024 season– 32nd-worst in FBS; Average: .389
Liberty: Keys to the Game vs. Middle Tennessee
Liberty was undefeated (6-0) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .399
Liberty is 10-3 (.769) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season– 11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .596
Liberty is 5-1 (.833) when not losing a fumble this season– T-5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .516
Liberty was 4-1 (.800) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .668
Matchup Notes for Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty
Liberty’s RBs averaged 12.1 yards after the catch last season — 5th-best among FBS RBs. Middle Tennessee’s defense allowed 12.8 RAC last season — T-14th-worst among FBS defenses.
Liberty gained 2,339 yards on 174 receptions (13.4 YPR) last season — T-18th-best among FBS skill players. Middle Tennessee’s defense allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception last season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.
Liberty’s RBs averaged 12.1 yards after the catch last season — 5th-best among FBS RBs. Middle Tennessee’s defense allowed 11.8 RAC to RBs last season — T-6th-worst among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee has 748 receptions in 33 games (22.7 per game) since the 2024 season — 18th-best among FBS skill players. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 16.7 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee’s WRs had 195 receptions in 12 games (16.2 per game) last season — T-13th-best among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense allowed just 16.9 receptions per game last season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee had 298 receptions in 12 games (24.8 per game) last season — T-6th-best among FBS skill players. Liberty’s defense allowed just 16.9 receptions per game last season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee Offensive Stats & Trends
Middle Tennessee TEs had 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Middle Tennessee threw for 4 TDs last week– T-4th-most among FBS Offenses
Middle Tennessee have averaged just 8.4 yards per completion (276 yards/33 completions) on 3rd down this season– T-3rd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.9
Middle Tennessee TEs had 17 receptions for 20 or more yards last season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams
Middle Tennessee RBs have averaged 5.7 Yards per Carry (1,166 yards/203 carries) this season– T-22nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Liberty Offensive Stats & Trends
Liberty have thrown 14 TDs and just one interception this season– T-5th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2.4
Liberty have averaged 17.8 yards per completion (392 yards/22 completions) in the 4th quarter this season– 4th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.9
Liberty have averaged 16.3 yards per reception (1,060 yards/65 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– 5th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8
Liberty RBs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since the 2024 season– T-most among FBS Teams
Liberty WRs have averaged 20.3 yards per reception (325 yards/16 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– T-3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.4
Middle Tennessee Defensive Stats & Trends
Middle Tennessee allowed 5.4 touchdowns per interception (27 TDs allowed, and 5 INT) last season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8
Middle Tennessee allowed 17 TD passes in the Red Zone last season– T-3rd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Middle Tennessee allowed 17 TD passes in the Red Zone last season– T-4th-most in FBS
Middle Tennessee has tackled opponents for a loss on just 29 of 315 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
Middle Tennessee has allowed first downs on 50% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 31%
Liberty Defensive Stats & Trends
Liberty has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 21 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 13%.
Liberty has allowed 4 rushing TDs on 256 carries (64 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 22.4
Liberty has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 21 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: 14%.
Liberty did not record a sack (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.4
Liberty has allowed 12 TDs this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.1
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