Mississippi State vs LSU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

• The LSU Tigers are a -10.5 point favorite vs. the Mississippi State Bulldogs
• Mississippi State vs. LSU Total (Over/Under): 60.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN | DIS+

Mississippi State (4-1) visit Tiger Stadium to take on LSU (4-2) on Oct. 17 in Baton Rouge, LA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.

The LSU Tigers are betting favorites in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-165).

The Mississippi State vs. LSU Over/Under is 60.5 total points.

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Mississippi State vs. LSU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Mississippi State vs LSU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts LSU will win this game with 72.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the LSU Tigers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Mississippi State vs LSU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts LSU will cover the spread with 64.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Mississippi State Best Bets Today

• Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• Mississippi State have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+2.05 Units / 40% ROI)

LSU Best Bets Today

• LSU has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 1% ROI)
• LSU has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.00 Units / 8% ROI)
• LSU has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.95 Units / 19% ROI)
• LSU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.25 Units / 8% ROI)
• LSU has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)

Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Mississippi State Bulldogs is 4-1 against the spread this college football season (+2.9 Units / 53.21% ROI).

• Mississippi State is 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.4 Units / 7.59% ROI
• Mississippi State is 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.85 Units / 15.6% ROI
• Mississippi State is 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -23.42% ROI

LSU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

LSU Tigers is 2-4 against the spread this college football season (-2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI).

• LSU is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -23.97% ROI
• LSU is 4-2 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI
• LSU is 2-4 when betting the Under for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI

Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. LSU

Mississippi State was winless (0-5) when in a one score game last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Mississippi State was winless (0-6) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .443

Mississippi State was 2-8 (.200) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Mississippi State was winless (0-8) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498

LSU: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State

LSU was 6-2 (.750) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-10th-best in FBS; Average: .442

LSU was 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– 10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .647

LSU is 9-1 (.900) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2024 season– T-16th-best in FBS; Average: .699

LSU was undefeated (6-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .688

Matchup Notes for Mississippi State vs. LSU

LSU’s RBs averaged just 4.8 yards after the catch last season — T-4th-worst among FBS RBs. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 12.1 RAC last season — 33rd-worst among FBS defenses.

LSU’s WRs has 486 receptions in 32 games (15.2 per game) since the 2024 season — 20th-best among FBS WRs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 19.7 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

LSU’s WRs has 486 receptions in 32 games (15.2 per game) since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among SEC WRs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 19.7 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-3rd-best among SEC WRs. LSU’s defense allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception last season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-19th-best among FBS WRs. LSU’s defense allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception last season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State’s TEs gained 423 yards on 44 receptions (just 9.6 YPR) last season — 4th-worst among SEC TEs. LSU’s defense allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception last season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends

Mississippi State WRs have caught 16 touchdown passes this season– most among SEC Teams

Mississippi State TEs had just one touchdown on 43 receptions last season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 9.2

Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-3rd-best among SEC WRs. LSU’s defense allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception last season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-19th-best among FBS WRs. LSU’s defense allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception last season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State WRs averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (10 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 2.1

LSU Offensive Stats & Trends

LSU Skill Players had 24 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter in the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

LSU WRs had 22 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter in the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

LSU Skill Players were targeted 18.8 times per game (244/13) in the 2nd half last season– highest among SEC Teams; Average: 13.3

LSU RBs had 106 receiving yards last week– most among FBS Teams

LSU WRs had 22 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter in the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

Mississippi State Defensive Stats & Trends

Mississippi State tackled opponents for a loss on just 52 of 523 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 17%.

Mississippi State has sacked opponents 5 times in the Red Zone this season– most among Power Conference Teams

Mississippi State allowed 216.9 rushing yards per game (2,603/12) last season– worst in the SEC; Average: 131.4

Mississippi State allowed 2,603 rushing yards last season– most in the SEC

Mississippi State did not record a sack (42 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 13.7

LSU Defensive Stats & Trends

LSU has tackled opponents for a loss on 44 of 177 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 17%.

LSU has allowed no passing TDs (11 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.9

LSU has allowed no passing TDs (11 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 3.9

LSU has allowed no passing TDs (11 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best in the SEC; Average: 4.3

LSU allowed a Completion Pct of just 31% (8 completions/26 attempts) in the Red Zone last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 53%

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