Navy vs Air Force Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

• The Air Force Falcons are a -2.5 point favorite vs. the Navy Midshipmen
• Navy vs. Air Force Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
• TV Channel: CBS

Navy (1-2) visit Falcon Stadium to take on Air Force (2-1) on Oct. 3 in U.S. Air Force Academy, CO. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.

The Air Force Falcons are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-140).

The Navy vs. Air Force Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

Bet now on Air Force Falcons vs Navy Midshipmen & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Navy vs. Air Force Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Navy vs Air Force Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Air Force will win this game with 54.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Navy Midshipmen and the Air Force Falcons, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Navy vs Air Force Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Air Force will cover the spread with 53.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Air Force Falcons vs Navy Midshipmen and all games with BetMGM

Navy Best Bets Today

• Navy has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 40% ROI)
• Navy has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Navy has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Navy has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Navy has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.05 Units / 7% ROI)

Air Force Best Bets Today

• Air Force has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+4.10 Units / 71% ROI)
• Air Force has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
• Air Force has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 52% ROI)
• Air Force has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 52% ROI)

Navy Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Navy Midshipmen is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.28 Units / -100% ROI).

• Navy is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.45 Units / -100% ROI
• Navy is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.11% ROI
• Navy is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.18 Units / -35.98% ROI

Air Force Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Air Force Falcons is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

• Air Force is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 1.91% ROI
• Air Force is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
• Air Force is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Navy: Keys to the Game vs. Air Force

Navy was undefeated (7-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .591

Navy was 10-1 (.909) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-6th-best in FBS; Average: .624

Navy is 7-2 (.778) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2024 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .385

Navy was 9-2 (.818) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .632

Air Force: Keys to the Game vs. Navy

Air Force was 2-6 (.250) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-25th-worst in FBS; Average: .454

Air Force was 1-7 (.125) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-12th-worst in FBS; Average: .442

Air Force is 4-8 (.333) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2024 season– T-35th-worst in FBS; Average: .482

Air Force was 3-7 (.300) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .479

Matchup Notes for Navy vs. Air Force

Air Force gained 1,581 yards on 84 receptions (18.8 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among FBS skill players. Navy’s defense allowed 12.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Air Force’s offense threw for 20 or more yards on 19.9% of 146 attempts last season — 2nd-best among FBS offenses. Navy’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.4% of attempts last season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Air Force’s WRs gained 1,189 yards on 57 receptions (20.9 YPR) last season — 2nd-best among FBS WRs. Navy’s defense allowed 12.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Navy’s offense threw for 1,690 passing yards in 13 games (just 130.0 YPG) last season — 5th-worst among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense allowed 279.5 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Navy gained 1,320 yards on 83 receptions (15.9 YPR) last season — 4th-best among FBS skill players. Air Force’s defense allowed 13.4 Yards Per Reception last season — 9th-worst among FBS defenses.

Navy’s QBs threw for 1,690 passing yards in 13 games (just 130.0 YPG) last season — 5th-worst among FBS teams. Air Force’s defense allowed 279.5 passing yards per game last season — worst among NonP5 defenses.

Navy Offensive Stats & Trends

Navy Skill Players have averaged just 6.2 receptions per game (99/16) since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.0

Navy WRs have averaged just 1.0 receptions per game (3/3) this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.8

Navy TEs have averaged 27.8 yards per reception (222 yards/8 catches) since the 2024 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 10.8

Navy Skill Players have been targeted 10.9 times per game (174/16) since the 2024 season– 2nd-lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.6

Navy WRs averaged 39.0 yards per reception (39 yards/1 catches) last week– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.7

Air Force Offensive Stats & Trends

Air Force Skill Players averaged just 5.1 receptions per game (61/12) last season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.8

Air Force TEs averaged 23.8 yards per reception (95 yards/4 catches) last season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1

Air Force have completed passes for 20+ yards on 36 of their 180 total passing attempts (20%) since the 2024 season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 10%

Air Force have gained 20+ yards on 7 of their 17 receptions (41%) this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 17%

Air Force TEs have averaged 17.9 yards per reception (429 yards/24 catches) since the 2024 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 10.8

Navy Defensive Stats & Trends

Navy has not forced a fumble (98 carries) this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 45.2

Navy has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 4 of 72 attempts (6%) this season– T-3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 2%

Navy has not forced a fumble (98 carries) this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 43.4

Navy has allowed a Completion Pct of just 20% (1 completions/5 attempts) in close and late situations this season– best in FBS; Average: 58%

Navy has allowed 10.7 Yards per Attempt (767 yards/72 attempts) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 7.0

Air Force Defensive Stats & Trends

The Air Force defense has allowed scores on 36% of opponent drives (41/115) in the 2nd half since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 23%

The Air Force defense has allowed scores on 37% of opponent drives (24/65) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 24%

Air Force has allowed no passing TDs (5 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.9

Air Force has forced 4 fumbles on 415 carries (103.8 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 46.2

Air Force has allowed 68.4 receiving yards per game (958/14) to RBs since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 24.4

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