- The New Mexico Lobos are a -11.5 point favorite vs. the New Mexico State Aggies
- New Mexico vs. New Mexico State Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
- TV Channel: CBSN
New Mexico (2-1) visit Aggie Memorial Stadium to take on New Mexico State (1-2) on Sep. 26 in Las Cruces, NM. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.
The New Mexico Lobos are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-108).
The New Mexico vs. New Mexico State Over/Under is 48.5 total points.
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New Mexico vs. New Mexico State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| New Mexico | -11.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | -450 |
| New Mexico State | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +360 |
New Mexico vs New Mexico State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts New Mexico will win this game with 71.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the New Mexico Lobos and the New Mexico State Aggies, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
New Mexico vs New Mexico State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts New Mexico will cover the spread with 52.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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New Mexico Best Bets Today
- New Mexico has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.85 Units / 58% ROI)
- New Mexico has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+5.15 Units / 3% ROI)
- New Mexico has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- New Mexico has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- New Mexico have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
New Mexico State Best Bets Today
- New Mexico State has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- New Mexico State has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- New Mexico State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- New Mexico State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- New Mexico State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.55 Units / 9% ROI)
New Mexico Against the Spread (ATS) Record
New Mexico Lobos is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- New Mexico is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- New Mexico is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- New Mexico is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
New Mexico State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
New Mexico State Aggies is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 26.87% ROI).
- New Mexico State is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -3.23% ROI
- New Mexico State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- New Mexico State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
New Mexico: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico State
New Mexico was winless (0-1) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .420
New Mexico is 9-1 (.900) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .560
New Mexico is 9-1 (.900) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .592
New Mexico is 4-1 (.800) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .481
New Mexico State: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico
New Mexico State was winless (0-3) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .536
New Mexico State was winless (0-6) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .454
New Mexico State was winless (0-6) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .406
New Mexico State was 3-5 (.333) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .481
Matchup Notes for New Mexico vs. New Mexico State
New Mexico State’s RBs averaged just 6.1 yards after the catch last season — T-28th-worst among FBS RBs. New Mexico’s defense allowed just 5.5 RAC to RBs last season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.
New Mexico State’s RBs averaged 6.1 targets per game last season — 19th-highest among FBS RBs. New Mexico’s defense allowed 4.8 receptions per game to RBs last season — 4th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico State has 333 receptions in 15 games (22.2 per game) since the 2024 season — T-25th-best among FBS skill players. New Mexico’s defense has allowed 20.1 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico’s offense has thrown for 3,110 passing yards in 16 games (just 194.4 YPG) since the 2024 season — 31st-worst among FBS offenses. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 237.6 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico’s QBs has thrown for 3,030 passing yards in 16 games (just 189.4 YPG) since the 2024 season — 31st-worst among FBS teams. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 237.6 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico’s TEs had 79 receptions in 13 games (6.1 per game) last season — T-4th-best among FBS TEs. New Mexico State’s defense allowed 21.7 receptions per game last season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico Offensive Stats & Trends
New Mexico TEs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– T-5th-most among FBS Teams
New Mexico TEs have 13 receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
New Mexico WRs have averaged just 7.0 receptions per game (91/13) this season– T-6th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.4
New Mexico RBs averaged 8.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (165 yards / 20 touches) on 3rd and short last season– T-4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4
New Mexico RBs have 10 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
New Mexico State Offensive Stats & Trends
New Mexico State RBs fumbled 10 times last season– most among FBS Teams
New Mexico State Skill Players caught just 5 of 18 passes(28% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 57%
New Mexico State WRs had no receptions on 13 targets in the Red Zone last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 52%
New Mexico State TEs have picked up first downs on 9 receptions in close and late situations this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
New Mexico State Skill Players caught just 140 of 299 passes(47% Reception Pct) last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 63%
New Mexico Defensive Stats & Trends
New Mexico allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (30 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 1.8
New Mexico intercepted 3 of 395 attempts (131.7 pass attempts per int.) last season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 36.1
New Mexico allowed 10.0 touchdowns per interception (30 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0
New Mexico averaged a sack every 35.9 pass attempts (395 Pass Attempts/11 Sacks) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.1
New Mexico averaged a sack every 35.9 pass attempts (395 Pass Attempts/11 Sacks) last season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 14.5
New Mexico State Defensive Stats & Trends
New Mexico State allowed passes of 40+ yards on 19 of 379 attempts (5%) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%
New Mexico State forced 2 fumbles on 459 carries (229.5 Carries Per Fumble) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 45.7
New Mexico State allowed passes of 40+ yards on 19 of 379 attempts (5%) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 2%
New Mexico State forced 2 fumbles on 459 carries (229.5 Carries Per Fumble) last season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 43.4
New Mexico State sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (14/379) last season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 7%
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