- The Duke Blue Devils are a -3.5 point favorite vs. the North Carolina Tar Heels
- North Carolina vs. Duke Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
North Carolina (3-2) visit Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium to take on Duke (4-1) on Oct. 17 in Durham, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.
The Duke Blue Devils are betting favorites in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-102).
The North Carolina vs. Duke Over/Under is 47.5 total points.
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North Carolina vs. Duke Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| North Carolina | +3.5 -118 | 47.5 -110 | +135 |
| Duke | -3.5 -102 | 47.5 -108 | -160 |
North Carolina vs Duke Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Duke will win this game with 59.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Duke Blue Devils, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
North Carolina vs Duke Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Duke will cover the spread with 57.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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North Carolina Best Bets Today
- North Carolina has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 away games (+1.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- North Carolina have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Duke Best Bets Today
- Duke have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.15 Units / 0% ROI)
- Duke has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- Duke have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.53 Units / 11% ROI)
North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record
North Carolina Tar Heels is 3-2 against the spread this college football season (+0.8 Units / 14.49% ROI).
- North Carolina is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 50% ROI
- North Carolina is 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
- North Carolina is 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
Duke Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Duke Blue Devils is 4-1 against the spread this college football season (+2.88 Units / 52.17% ROI).
- Duke is 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.95 Units / 18.31% ROI
- Duke is 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.63% ROI
- Duke is 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.33 Units / -24.05% ROI
North Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Duke
North Carolina was winless (0-6) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .379
North Carolina was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459
North Carolina is 4-6 (.400) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .562
North Carolina is 2-10 (.167) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2024 season– 19th-worst in FBS; Average: .406
Duke: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina
Duke was 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .632
Duke was 8-4 (.667) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .442
Duke is 7-1 (.875) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2024 season– T-28th-best in FBS; Average: .683
Duke is 11-3 (.786) when not losing a fumble since the 2024 season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .591
Matchup Notes for North Carolina vs. Duke
Duke’s TEs gained 677 yards on 57 receptions (11.9 YPR) last season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. North Carolina’s defense allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception last season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.
Duke’s TEs gained 677 yards on 57 receptions (11.9 YPR) last season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. North Carolina’s defense allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception last season — T-3rd-best among ACC defenses.
Duke had 2.4 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-3rd-best among Power 5 skill players. North Carolina’s defense allowed just 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-5th-best among ACC defenses.
North Carolina’s QBs threw for 2,207 passing yards in 12 games (just 183.9 YPG) last season — 27th-worst among FBS teams. Duke’s defense allowed 276.8 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
North Carolina’s offense threw for 2,207 passing yards in 12 games (just 183.9 YPG) last season — 27th-worst among FBS offenses. Duke’s defense allowed 276.8 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among P5 defenses.
North Carolina’s QBs threw for 2,207 passing yards in 12 games (just 183.9 YPG) last season — 27th-worst among FBS teams. Duke’s defense allowed 276.8 passing yards per game last season — 3rd-worst among P5 defenses.
North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina WRs have averaged a touchdown every 6.5 receptions (13 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.9
North Carolina WRs have averaged a touchdown every 23.5 receptions (188 Rec/8 TDs) since the 2024 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.5
North Carolina WRs have no touchdowns on 45 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.5
North Carolina WRs have averaged a touchdown every 23.5 receptions (188 Rec/8 TDs) since the 2024 season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.0
North Carolina TEs have averaged 32.2 yards per reception (129 yards/4 catches) in close and late situations since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.4
Duke Offensive Stats & Trends
Duke have one interception on 171 attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– 3rd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 32.8
Duke have thrown 0 TDs on 25 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 17.4
Duke have not been sacked (41 pass attempts) on 3rd down this season– T-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.3
Duke have thrown 8 TDs and just one interception in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– T-6th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 1.7
Duke have 7 interceptions on 654 attempts (1 INT per 93.4 attempts) since the 2024 season– 4th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 41.6
North Carolina Defensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina allowed no passing TDs (44 pass attempts) last week– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.1
North Carolina sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (45/387) last season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
North Carolina allowed passes of 40+ yards on 16 of 387 attempts (4%) last season– T-5th-worst in FBS; Average: 2%
North Carolina averaged 3.5 sacks per game last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 2.1
North Carolina did not allow any touchdowns on 27 completions last week– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.1
Duke Defensive Stats & Trends
Duke has allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (15 completions/15 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 62%
Duke has allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (15 completions/15 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%
Duke has no interceptions and 19 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 8.8
Duke has no interceptions and 19 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8.9
Duke had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 31.0
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