North Carolina vs Duke Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 14, 2022, 9:05 AM
  • (2-4) are point favorites vs (2-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): points
  • Watch the game on ACC Network

The North Carolina Tar Heels (6-1) visit Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium to take on the Duke Blue Devils (4-3) on Oct. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Durham.

are betting favorites in Week 7, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for North Carolina vs. Duke is total points.

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North Carolina vs. Duke Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 7

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
North Carolina
Duke

North Carolina vs Duke Prediction for Week 7

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts North Carolina will win this game with 60.8% confidence.

North Carolina vs Duke Spread Prediction for Week 7

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts North Carolina will cover the spread with 56.4% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both North Carolina and Duke, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best North Carolina Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for North Carolina players for Week 7, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Downs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Drake Maye has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Drake Maye has hit the TD Passes Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Best Duke Player Prop Best Bets Today

    Top NCAAF player prop bets for Duke players for Week 7, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jalon Calhoun has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.05 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Riley Leonard has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+4.49 Units / 14% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 91% ROI)
  • North Carolina have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 88% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.45 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+4.52 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.40 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Duke have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.07 Units / 63% ROI)
  • North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    North Carolina has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

    • North Carolina is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
    • North Carolina is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
    • North Carolina is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

    Duke Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Duke has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

    • Duke is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
    • Duke is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
    • Duke is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

    North Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Duke

    North Carolina is 9-3 (.643) when committing less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .431

    Duke: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina

    Duke is 1-10 (.091) when the opposing team commits less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .509

    Duke is 3-16 (.158) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 3rd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .506

    Duke is 4-18 (.182) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2020 season– 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .450

    Duke is 1-10 (.091) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2020 season– 3rd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .499

    Matchup Notes for North Carolina vs. Duke

    Duke’s WRs have just 133.0 receiving yards per game this season — second-worst among ACC WRs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 304.2 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-worst among FBS defenses.

    Duke have just 172.4 receiving yards per game this season — second-worst among ACC skill players. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 304.2 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-worst among FBS defenses.

    Duke have just 172.4 receiving yards per game this season — second-worst among ACC skill players. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 304.2 receiving yards per game this season — third-worst among P5 defenses.

    North Carolina has gained 4,636 yards on 326 receptions (14.2 YPR) since the 2021 season — best among ACC skill players. Duke’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — second-worst among P5 defenses.

    North Carolina has gained 4,636 yards on 326 receptions (14.2 YPR) since the 2021 season — third-best among Power 5 skill players. Duke’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — worst among ACC defenses.

    North Carolina’s WRs has gained 739 yards on 48 receptions (15.4 YPR) this season — second-best among ACC WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for fourth-best among ACC defenses.

    North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends

    North Carolina TEs have 7 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

    North Carolina TEs have 7 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– tied for 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

    North Carolina has gained 4,636 yards on 326 receptions (14.2 YPR) since the 2021 season — best among ACC skill players. Duke’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — second-worst among P5 defenses.

    North Carolina has gained 4,636 yards on 326 receptions (14.2 YPR) since the 2021 season — third-best among Power 5 skill players. Duke’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — worst among ACC defenses.

    North Carolina’s WRs has gained 739 yards on 48 receptions (15.4 YPR) this season — second-best among ACC WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for fourth-best among ACC defenses.

    Duke Offensive Stats & Trends

    Duke Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 26.7 receptions (320 Rec/12 TDs) since last season– 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.3

    Duke WRs have just one touchdown on 10 receptions in the Red Zone since last season– 3rd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

    Duke WRs have just one touchdown on 10 receptions in the Red Zone since last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2.0

    Duke Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 4.2 receptions (17 Rec/4 TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– 2nd worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2.1

    Duke WRs have averaged a touchdown every 33.1 receptions (232 Rec/7 TDs) since last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.7

    North Carolina Tar Heels Defensive Stats & Trends

    North Carolina has forced 7 fumbles on 635 carries (90.7 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 41.5

    North Carolina has forced 7 fumbles on 635 carries (90.7 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 41.7

    North Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on just 12 of 132 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) this season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 17%.

    North Carolina has allowed opponents to catch 6 of 7 passes (86% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone this season– tied for 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 52%

    North Carolina opponents has averaged just 13.3 Passing Attempts per TD (479 Pass Attempts/36 Passing TDs) since last season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 21.8

    Duke Blue Devils Defensive Stats & Trends

    Duke has allowed 14.9 yards per completion (4,796 yards/322 completions) since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.3

    Duke has allowed 10.8 Yards per Attempt (868 yards/80 attempts) on 3rd and long since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 7.5

    Duke has allowed 8.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (7,554 yards / 918 touches) since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 6.7

    Duke has allowed a Completion Pct of just 44% (8 completions/18 attempts) on 3rd and short since last season– 4th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 62%

    Duke has forced 25 fumbles since last season– tied for 4th most among Power 5 Teams


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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.