- The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are a -22 point favorite vs. the North Carolina Tar Heels
- Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN | DIS+
Notre Dame (4-0) visit Kenan Stadium to take on North Carolina (2-1) on Oct. 3 in Chapel Hill, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -22 (-102).
The Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Over/Under is 48.5 total points.
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Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Notre Dame | -22 -102 | 48.5 -140 | -2000 |
| North Carolina | +22 -130 | 48.5 +105 | +1100 |
Notre Dame vs North Carolina Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Notre Dame will win this game with 94.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the North Carolina Tar Heels, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Notre Dame vs North Carolina Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts North Carolina will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Notre Dame Best Bets Today
- Notre Dame has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 2% ROI)
- Notre Dame has hit the Moneyline in their last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 4% ROI)
- Notre Dame has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.90 Units / 4% ROI)
- Notre Dame have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- Notre Dame has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
North Carolina Best Bets Today
- North Carolina has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 54% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.65 Units / 11% ROI)
Notre Dame Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Notre Dame Fighting Irish is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).
- Notre Dame is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 3.06% ROI
- Notre Dame is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Notre Dame is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record
North Carolina Tar Heels is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- North Carolina is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 77.5% ROI
- North Carolina is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- North Carolina is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Notre Dame: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina
Notre Dame was undefeated (11-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .604
Notre Dame was 14-1 (.933) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: .575
Notre Dame was 8-2 (.800) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: .442
Notre Dame was 7-2 (.778) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-10th-best in FBS; Average: .429
North Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Notre Dame
North Carolina is 1-6 (.143) when not forcing and recovering a fumble since the 2024 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .554
North Carolina was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .414
North Carolina was winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459
North Carolina is 1-9 (.100) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2024 season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459
Matchup Notes for Notre Dame vs. North Carolina
North Carolina’s RBs averaged 6.3 targets per game last season — 15th-highest among FBS RBs. Notre Dame’s defense allowed 4.1 receptions per game to RBs last season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.
North Carolina’s WRs has averaged just 12.1 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among ACC WRs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2024 season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.
North Carolina’s WRs has averaged just 12.1 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-24th-worst among FBS WRs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2024 season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.
Notre Dame gained 2,977 yards on 216 receptions (13.8 YPR) last season — T-11th-best among FBS skill players. North Carolina’s defense allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception last season — T-3rd-best among ACC defenses.
Notre Dame’s TEs gained 546 yards on 40 receptions (13.6 YPR) last season — 5th-best among P5 TEs. North Carolina’s defense allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception last season — T-3rd-best among ACC defenses.
Notre Dame’s WRs gained 2,024 yards on 141 receptions (14.4 YPR) last season — T-27th-best among FBS WRs. North Carolina’s defense allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception last season — T-3rd-best among ACC defenses.
Notre Dame Offensive Stats & Trends
Notre Dame have thrown 3 TDs and no interceptions in the 4th quarter this season– T-9th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 1.9
Notre Dame WRs have averaged 29.3 yards per reception (88 yards/3 catches) with over 10 yards to go this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.4
Notre Dame have averaged 17.4 yards per completion (2,073 yards/119 completions) on 1st down since the 2024 season– 3rd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 12.3
Notre Dame have averaged 17.4 yards per reception (2,073 yards/119 catches) on 1st down since the 2024 season– 3rd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 12.3
Notre Dame Skill Players averaged 17.5 yards per reception (1,502 yards/86 catches) on 1st down last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.2
North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina WRs have no touchdowns on 27 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.8
North Carolina WRs have no touchdowns on 27 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8.8
North Carolina have thrown 0 TDs on 18 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 16.6
North Carolina Skill Players have no touchdowns on 24 receptions in close and late situations since the 2024 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.9
North Carolina WRs have averaged a touchdown every 5.5 receptions (11 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 5th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0
Notre Dame Defensive Stats & Trends
Notre Dame has forced 8 fumbles this season– T-most in FBS
Notre Dame has allowed 9 rushing TDs on 525 carries (58.3 Carries Per TD) since the 2024 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 24.6
Notre Dame opponents averaged 46.4 Passing Attempts per TD (371 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 20.1
Notre Dame has allowed less than 350 total offensive yards in each of their last 8 games — the Ohio State Buckeyes have the longest active streak at 27.
Notre Dame has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 4 of 123 carries (3%) this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 12%
North Carolina Defensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina has allowed one passing TD (92 pass attempts) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 22.1
North Carolina sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (45/387) last season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
North Carolina has allowed one touchdown on 63 completions this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.3
North Carolina sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (45/387) last season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 7%
North Carolina has allowed one passing TD (92 pass attempts) this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 25.6
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