Oklahoma vs Mississippi State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 8

• The Oklahoma Sooners are a -2.5 point favorite vs. the Mississippi State Bulldogs
• Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
• TV Channel: SECN

Oklahoma (3-3) visit Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field to take on Mississippi State (4-2) on Oct. 24 in Starkville, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.

The Oklahoma Sooners are betting favorites in Week 8, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-165).

The Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

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Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Oklahoma vs Mississippi State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Oklahoma will win this game with 54.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Oklahoma Sooners and the Mississippi State Bulldogs, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Oklahoma vs Mississippi State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Oklahoma will cover the spread with 53.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Oklahoma Best Bets Today

• Oklahoma has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+60.25 Units / 206% ROI)
• Oklahoma has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.68 Units / 13% ROI)
• Oklahoma has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.45 Units / 11% ROI)
• Oklahoma has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.40 Units / 10% ROI)
• Oklahoma has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)

Mississippi State Best Bets Today

• Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 41% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• Mississippi State have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.35 Units / 4% ROI)

Oklahoma Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oklahoma Sooners is 2-4 against the spread this college football season (-2.38 Units / -36.45% ROI).

• Oklahoma is 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -7.3% ROI
• Oklahoma is 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.4 Units / -35.4% ROI
• Oklahoma is 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.98 Units / 30.84% ROI

Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Mississippi State Bulldogs is 4-2 against the spread this college football season (+1.8 Units / 27.48% ROI).

• Mississippi State is 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.4 Units / 5.24% ROI
• Mississippi State is 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.25 Units / -3.82% ROI
• Mississippi State is 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / -4.51% ROI

Oklahoma: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State

Oklahoma is undefeated (10-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .649

Oklahoma was 5-1 (.833) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .668

Oklahoma is 2-6 (.222) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2024 season– T-28th-worst in FBS; Average: .407

Oklahoma was 1-4 (.200) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .379

Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Oklahoma

Mississippi State was winless (0-8) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .498

Mississippi State was winless (0-9) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462

Mississippi State was winless (0-5) when in a one score game last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Mississippi State was 1-6 (.143) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .581

Matchup Notes for Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State

Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-19th-best among FBS WRs. Oklahoma’s defense allowed just 12.0 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State gained 3,135 yards on 243 receptions (12.9 YPR) last season — T-29th-best among FBS skill players. Oklahoma’s defense allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception last season — T-4th-best among SEC defenses.

Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-3rd-best among SEC WRs. Oklahoma’s defense allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception last season — T-4th-best among SEC defenses.

Oklahoma’s WRs has 371 receptions in 32 games (just 11.6 per game) since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among SEC WRs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 20.1 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma’s TEs had just 0.1 receiving touchdowns per game last season — 3rd-worst among SEC TEs. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 1.8 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma’s TEs has gained 1,478 yards on 143 receptions (just 10.3 YPR) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among SEC TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2024 season — T-19th-best among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma Offensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma Skill Players averaged just 9.7 yards per reception (2,242 yards/232 catches) last season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 12.8

Oklahoma were sacked on 20% of pass attempts (24/119) in the 4th quarter last season– worst among SEC Offenses; Average: 9%

Oklahoma were sacked on 20% of pass attempts (24/119) in the 4th quarter last season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 7%

Oklahoma Skill Players have averaged just 8.7 yards per reception (199 yards/23 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 12.1

Oklahoma WRs averaged just 10.1 yards per reception (555 yards/55 catches) on 1st down last season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 14.7

Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends

Mississippi State TEs had just one touchdown on 43 receptions last season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 9.2

Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-19th-best among FBS WRs. Oklahoma’s defense allowed just 12.0 Yards Per Reception to WRs last season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

Mississippi State gained 3,135 yards on 243 receptions (12.9 YPR) last season — T-29th-best among FBS skill players. Oklahoma’s defense allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception last season — T-4th-best among SEC defenses.

Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-3rd-best among SEC WRs. Oklahoma’s defense allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception last season — T-4th-best among SEC defenses.

Mississippi State’s WRs gained 2,413 yards on 163 receptions (14.8 YPR) last season — T-19th-best among FBS WRs. Oklahoma’s defense allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception last season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma Defensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma has tackled opponents for a loss on 147 of 621 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) since the 2024 season– best in the SEC; Average: 17%.

Oklahoma tackled opponents for a loss on 111 of 420 rushing attempts (26% TFL%) last season– best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Oklahoma has tackled opponents for a loss on 147 of 621 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) since the 2024 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Oklahoma has tackled opponents for a loss on 22 of 73 rushing attempts (30% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– best in the SEC; Average: 17%.

Oklahoma has tackled opponents for a loss on 22 of 73 rushing attempts (30% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– best in FBS; Average: 14%.

Mississippi State Defensive Stats & Trends

Mississippi State has allowed 6.5 touchdowns per interception (13 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 1.5

Mississippi State did not record a sack (42 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 13.7

Mississippi State has sacked opponents 6 times in the Red Zone this season– most among Power Conference Teams

Mississippi State has sacked opponents 6 times in the Red Zone this season– most in the SEC

Mississippi State has sacked opponents 6 times in the Red Zone this season– most in FBS

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