Michigan WolverinesPenn State Nittany Lions

Penn State vs Michigan Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 21, 2022, 8:50 AM

– (2-4) are point favorites vs – (2-4)
Total (Over/Under): points
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The Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1) visit Michigan Stadium to take on the Michigan Wolverines (7-0) on Oct. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT in Ann Arbor.

– are betting favorites in Week 7, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Penn State vs. Michigan is total points.

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Penn State vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 7

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Penn State
Michigan

Penn State vs Michigan Prediction for Week 7

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Michigan will win this game with 62.3% confidence.

Penn State vs Michigan Spread Prediction for Week 7

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan will cover the spread with 58.9% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Penn State and Michigan, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.

Best Penn State Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Penn State players for Week 7, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Noah Cain has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)

Parker Washington has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 44% ROI)

Keyvone Lee has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)

Mitchell Tinsley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Parker Washington has hit the Receptions Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)

Sean Clifford has hit the TD Passes Under in 5 of his last 7 away games (+2.00 Units / 20% ROI)

Sean Clifford has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 away games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)

Best Michigan Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Michigan players for Week 7, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Cornelius Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.35 Units / 43% ROI)

Cade McNamara has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)

Cornelius Johnson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 75% ROI)

Cade McNamara has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Blake Corum has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Roman Wilson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Penn State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Penn State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+10.22 Units / 21% ROI)

Penn State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.75 Units / 10% ROI)

Penn State have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.85 Units / 34% ROI)

Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 36% ROI)

Penn State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)

Michigan Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 17 games (+14.45 Units / 16% ROI)

Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 16 games (+12.25 Units / 12% ROI)

Michigan has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+10.87 Units / 19% ROI)

Michigan have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI)

Michigan have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)

Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Penn State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

Penn State is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
Penn State is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
Penn State is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

Michigan is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
Michigan is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
Michigan is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan

#10 Penn State is 7-2 (.778) when allowing less than 3 sacks — 3rd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .444

#10 Penn State is 10-4 (.714) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2020 season– tied for 4th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .484

#10 Penn State is 8-5 (.615) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2020 season– tied for 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .376

#10 Penn State is winless (0-5) when having a TD margin of -2 or worse since the 2020 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .007

Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

#4 Michigan is undefeated (12-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush — tied for best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .609

#4 Michigan is 11-1 (.917) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team — 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .498

#4 Michigan is undefeated (10-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays — 5th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .411

#4 Michigan is undefeated (10-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for 2nd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .410

Matchup Notes for Penn State vs. Michigan

Michigan’s TEs has 28 receptions in 5 games (5.6 per game) this season — fourth-best among Big Ten TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game this season — fifth-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan has gained 1,258 yards on 102 receptions (12.3 YPR) this season — fifth-best among Big Ten skill players. Penn State’s defense has allowed 12.5 Yards Per Reception this season — third-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan’s WRs has gained 2,866 yards on 188 receptions (15.2 YPR) since the 2021 season — third-best among Big Ten WRs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — tied for second-best among Big Ten defenses.

Penn State has gained 993 yards on 79 receptions (12.6 YPR) this season — fourth-best among Big Ten skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 9.0 Yards Per Reception this season — third-best among Big Ten defenses.

Penn State’s TEs has gained 264 yards on 16 receptions (16.5 YPR) this season — best among Big Ten TEs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 9.0 Yards Per Reception this season — fifth-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State’s TEs has gained 264 yards on 16 receptions (16.5 YPR) this season — best among Big Ten TEs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 9.0 Yards Per Reception this season — fourth-best among P5 defenses.

Penn State Offensive Stats & Trends

#10 Penn State RBs have fumbled 5 times this season– most among FBS Teams

Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends

#4 Michigan WRs have averaged just 2.0 yards per reception (2 yards/1 catches) on 3rd and long this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 14.8

Michigan’s TEs has averaged 6.3 targets per game since the 2021 season — fifth-highest among Big Ten TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed 4.9 receptions per game to TEs since the 2021 season — tied for worst among FBS defenses.

Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive Stats & Trends

#10 Penn State opponents has averaged 43.6 Passing Attempts per TD (611 Pass Attempts/14 Passing TDs) since last season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 20.0

#10 Penn State opponents has averaged 43.6 Passing Attempts per TD (611 Pass Attempts/14 Passing TDs) since last season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 21.8

#10 Penn State has tackled opponents for a loss on 27 of 106 rushing attempts (26% TFL%) in the Red Zone since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.

#10 Penn State has allowed 2.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (306 yards / 130 touches) in the Red Zone since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.6

#10 Penn State has tackled opponents for a loss on 27 of 106 rushing attempts (26% TFL%) in the Red Zone since last season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Michigan Wolverines Defensive Stats & Trends

#4 Michigan’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 14% of PATs since last season– highest among Power 5 Teams; Average: 5%

#4 Michigan’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 14% of PATs since last season– highest in FBS; Average: 4%

#4 Michigan has allowed 4.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (863 yards / 183 touches) this season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 6.3

#4 Michigan has allowed 83.2 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 155.7

#4 Michigan has allowed a Completion Pct of just 42% (41 completions/97 attempts) on 3rd and long since last season– 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 55%

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