Penn State vs Michigan Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

• The Michigan Wolverines are a -6.5 point favorite vs. the Penn State Nittany Lions
• Penn State vs. Michigan Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
• TV Channel: CBS

Penn State (3-3) visit Michigan Stadium to take on Michigan (3-2) on Oct. 17 in Ann Arbor, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm.

The Michigan Wolverines are betting favorites in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).

The Penn State vs. Michigan Over/Under is 43.5 total points.

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Penn State vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Penn State vs Michigan Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Michigan will win this game with 64.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Michigan Wolverines, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Penn State vs Michigan Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan will cover the spread with 61.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Penn State Best Bets Today

• Penn State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.95 Units / 1% ROI)
• Penn State have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.33 Units / 29% ROI)
• Penn State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 13 games (+3.20 Units / 2% ROI)
• Penn State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.32 Units / 15% ROI)
• Penn State has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.65 Units / 8% ROI)

Michigan Best Bets Today

• Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+8.45 Units / 1% ROI)
• Michigan has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 63% ROI)
• Michigan has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)
• Michigan has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.65 Units / 55% ROI)
• Michigan has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 35% ROI)

Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Penn State Nittany Lions is 2-4 against the spread this college football season (-2.35 Units / -35.99% ROI).

• Penn State is 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.55 Units / -9.18% ROI
• Penn State is 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.35 Units / -35.88% ROI
• Penn State is 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.8 Units / 27.07% ROI

Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan Wolverines is 2-3 against the spread this college football season (-1.35 Units / -24.32% ROI).

• Michigan is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.68 Units / -3.69% ROI
• Michigan is 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.38 Units / -61.68% ROI
• Michigan is 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / 51.51% ROI

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan

Penn State is winless (0-10) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .454

Penn State is winless (0-6) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .464

Penn State is winless (0-6) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .510

Penn State was 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .468

Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

Michigan was 1-5 (.167) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .515

Michigan is 5-2 (.714) when in a one score game since the 2024 season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .515

Michigan was 4-1 (.800) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .632

Michigan is 9-2 (.818) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2024 season– 25th-best in FBS; Average: .653

Matchup Notes for Penn State vs. Michigan

Michigan’s QBs threw for 2,428 passing yards in 13 games (just 186.8 YPG) last season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Penn State’s defense allowed just 184.2 passing yards per game last season — 5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan’s QBs threw for 2,428 passing yards in 13 games (just 186.8 YPG) last season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Penn State’s defense allowed just 184.2 passing yards per game last season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.

Michigan’s WRs gained 1,664 yards on 119 receptions (14.0 YPR) last season — 3rd-best among Big Ten WRs. Penn State’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State’s TEs had 61 receptions in 13 games (4.7 per game) last season — 4th-best among Big Ten TEs. Michigan’s defense allowed 20.8 receptions per game last season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Penn State’s WRs has averaged 14.7 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-2nd-best among Big Ten WRs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 9.8 RAC since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Penn State’s WRs has averaged 14.7 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-10th-best among FBS WRs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.8 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State Offensive Stats & Trends

Penn State TEs picked up first downs on 11 receptions in the Red Zone last season– most among Big Ten Teams

Penn State TEs caught 11 touchdown passes last season– most among Big Ten Teams

Penn State TEs had 22 receptions for 20 or more yards last season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Penn State TEs averaged 7.9 receptions per game (127/16) last season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.4

Penn State TEs averaged 7.9 receptions per game (127/16) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.7

Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends

Michigan have averaged 19.6 yards per completion (216 yards/11 completions) in the 4th quarter this season– 6th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8

Michigan Skill Players have caught just 11 of 26 passes (42% Reception Pct) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 65%

Michigan WRs averaged just 8.7 yards per reception (401 yards/46 catches) with 7-10 yards to go last season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.6

Michigan WRs averaged just 9.1 yards per reception (752 yards/83 catches) last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.4

Michigan WRs averaged just 9.1 yards per reception (752 yards/83 catches) last season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.1

Penn State Defensive Stats & Trends

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 8%

Penn State allowed 10 rushing TDs on 534 carries (53.4 Carries Per TD) last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 23.2

Penn State has allowed first downs on 15% of rush attempts on 3rd and short this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%

Penn State has allowed first downs on 15% of rush attempts on 3rd and short this season– best in FBS; Average: 60%

Penn State has no interceptions (65 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 34.2

Michigan Defensive Stats & Trends

Michigan has allowed one rushing TD on 171 carries this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 25.7

Michigan has allowed one rushing TD on 171 carries this season– 2nd-best in the Big Ten; Average: 31.2

Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 20.1

Michigan has allowed one rushing TD on 171 carries this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 27.9

Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.2

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