Purdue vs UCLA Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

• The UCLA Bruins are a -14 point favorite vs. the Purdue Boilermakers
• Purdue vs. UCLA Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
• TV Channel: BTN

Purdue (1-1) visit Rose Bowl to take on UCLA (2-0) on Sep. 19 in Pasadena, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 11:00 pm.

The UCLA Bruins are betting favorites in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -14 (-110).

The Purdue vs. UCLA Over/Under is 53.5 total points.

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Purdue vs. UCLA Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Purdue vs UCLA Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UCLA will win this game with 76.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Purdue Boilermakers and the UCLA Bruins, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Purdue vs UCLA Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCLA will cover the spread with 65.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Purdue Best Bets Today

• Purdue has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.05 Units / 55% ROI)
• Purdue has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+4.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Purdue have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.30 Units / 10% ROI)
• Purdue has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Purdue has hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.75 Units / 13% ROI)

UCLA Best Bets Today

• UCLA has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+12.75 Units / 123% ROI)
• UCLA has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+12.15 Units / 79% ROI)
• UCLA has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
• UCLA has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.70 Units / 45% ROI)
• UCLA has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 1 of their last 5 games at home (+1.10 Units / 14% ROI)

Purdue Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Purdue Boilermakers is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.44% ROI).

• Purdue is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
• Purdue is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
• Purdue is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI

UCLA Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UCLA Bruins is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).

• UCLA is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 29.41% ROI
• UCLA is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
• UCLA is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Purdue: Keys to the Game vs. UCLA

Purdue was winless (0-10) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .451

Purdue was winless (0-7) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .443

Purdue was 1-11 (.083) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

Purdue was winless (0-4) when in a one score game last season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

UCLA: Keys to the Game vs. Purdue

UCLA was 3-6 (.333) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-15th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .515

UCLA was 2-7 (.222) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– 9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492

UCLA was 2-7 (.222) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-21st-worst in FBS; Average: .460

UCLA was 5-2 (.714) when in a one score game last season– 11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

Matchup Notes for Purdue vs. UCLA

UCLA’s QBs threw for 2,163 passing yards in 12 games (just 180.2 YPG) last season — 23rd-worst among FBS teams. Purdue’s defense allowed 241.7 passing yards per game last season — worst among Big Ten defenses.

UCLA’s TEs had 32 receptions in 12 games (just 2.7 per game) last season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Purdue’s defense allowed just 16.8 receptions per game last season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

UCLA’s offense threw for 2,163 passing yards in 12 games (just 180.2 YPG) last season — 23rd-worst among FBS offenses. Purdue’s defense allowed 241.7 passing yards per game last season — worst among Big Ten defenses.

Purdue’s RBs averaged 9.5 yards after the catch last season — T-26th-best among FBS RBs. UCLA’s defense allowed 12.0 RAC to RBs last season — T-3rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Purdue’s TEs had just 0.0 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-worst among Big Ten TEs. UCLA’s defense allowed 1.9 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Purdue’s TEs had just 0.0 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-worst among P5 TEs. UCLA’s defense allowed 1.9 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Purdue Offensive Stats & Trends

Purdue’s RBs averaged 9.5 yards after the catch last season — T-26th-best among FBS RBs. UCLA’s defense allowed 12.0 RAC to RBs last season — T-3rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Purdue RBs averaged 9.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (318 yards / 33 touches) in close and late situations last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Purdue were targeted 11 times in the Red Zone last week– T-most among FBS Offenses

Purdue Skill Players were targeted 11 times in the Red Zone last week– most among Power Conference Teams

Purdue RBs averaged 7.3 Yards per Carry (422 yards/58 carries) in the 4th quarter last season– T-3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2

UCLA Offensive Stats & Trends

UCLA’s QBs threw for 2,163 passing yards in 12 games (just 180.2 YPG) last season — 23rd-worst among FBS teams. Purdue’s defense allowed 241.7 passing yards per game last season — worst among Big Ten defenses.

UCLA’s TEs had 32 receptions in 12 games (just 2.7 per game) last season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Purdue’s defense allowed just 16.8 receptions per game last season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

UCLA Skill Players had no touchdowns on 14 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.0

UCLA’s offense threw for 2,163 passing yards in 12 games (just 180.2 YPG) last season — 23rd-worst among FBS offenses. Purdue’s defense allowed 241.7 passing yards per game last season — worst among Big Ten defenses.

UCLA RBs rushed for 3 TDs on 234 carries (78 Carries Per TD) last season– 5th-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.4

Purdue Defensive Stats & Trends

Purdue allowed 6.8 touchdowns per interception (27 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1.6

Purdue allowed 6.8 touchdowns per interception (27 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6

Purdue allowed passes of 40+ yards on 16 of 311 attempts (5%) last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 2%

Purdue allowed 60 TDs last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 2.6

Purdue forced 2 fumbles on 472 carries (236.0 Carries Per Fumble) last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 41.8

UCLA Defensive Stats & Trends

UCLA allowed opponents to catch just 6 of 18 passes (33% Reception Pct) last week– best in the Big Ten; Average: 60%

UCLA averaged a sack every 32.5 pass attempts (325 Pass Attempts/10 Sacks) last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 13.8

UCLA allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (6 completions/18 attempts) last week– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 58%

UCLA allowed 5.8 touchdowns per interception (23 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1.8

UCLA tackled opponents for a loss on 16 of 54 rushing attempts (30% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

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