- The Texas Longhorns are a -5 point favorite vs. the Tennessee Volunteers
- Texas vs. Tennessee Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
- TV Channel: ABC
Texas (3-0) visit Neyland Stadium to take on Tennessee (3-0) on Sep. 26 in Knoxville, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 pm.
The Texas Longhorns are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -5 (-120).
The Texas vs. Tennessee Over/Under is 56.5 total points.
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Texas vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Texas | -5 -120 | 56.5 -112 | -220 |
| Tennessee | +5 -108 | 56.5 -105 | +180 |
Texas vs Tennessee Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 54.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Texas Longhorns and the Tennessee Volunteers, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Texas vs Tennessee Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas will cover the spread with 53.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Texas Best Bets Today
- Texas has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.10 Units / 6% ROI)
- Texas has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.05 Units / 14% ROI)
Tennessee Best Bets Today
- Tennessee has hit the Team Total Under in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Tennessee has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Tennessee has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- Tennessee has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Tennessee has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.65 Units / 1% ROI)
Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas Longhorns is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.14% ROI).
- Texas is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 2.99% ROI
- Texas is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -35.82% ROI
- Texas is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.95 Units / 29.23% ROI
Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Tennessee Volunteers is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.15 Units / -35.38% ROI).
- Tennessee is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 20.83% ROI
- Tennessee is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Tennessee is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Tennessee
Texas is 10-1 (.909) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– 7th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .625
Texas was 13-3 (.812) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– 15th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .659
Texas was 13-2 (.867) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-7th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .657
Texas is 7-1 (.875) when rushing more than 30 times this season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .672
Tennessee: Keys to the Game vs. Texas
Tennessee was undefeated (6-0) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .631
Tennessee was undefeated (9-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .659
Tennessee was 10-3 (.769) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .632
Tennessee is 7-2 (.778) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .640
Matchup Notes for Texas vs. Tennessee
Tennessee’s WRs gained 2,897 yards on 202 receptions (14.3 YPR) last season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-2nd-best among SEC defenses.
Tennessee’s offense threw for 3,807 passing yards in 13 games (292.8 YPG) last season — 6th-best among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense allowed 234.9 passing yards per game last season — 5th-worst among SEC defenses.
Tennessee gained 3,807 yards on 292 receptions (13.0 YPR) last season — 5th-best among SEC skill players. Texas’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-2nd-best among SEC defenses.
Texas’s WRs had 192.4 receiving yards per game last season — 4th-best among SEC WRs. Tennessee’s defense allowed 175.2 receiving yards per game to WRs last season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas’s WRs has averaged 14.2 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 5th-best among SEC WRs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.
Texas’s WRs had 192.4 receiving yards per game last season — 32nd-best among FBS WRs. Tennessee’s defense allowed 244.8 receiving yards per game last season — 2nd-worst among SEC defenses.
Texas Offensive Stats & Trends
Texas QBs had 79 completions for 20 or more yards last season– T-most among FBS Teams
Texas RBs caught 5 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Texas QBs had 25 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down last season– most among FBS Teams
Texas RBs had 14 receptions in the Red Zone last season– most among FBS Teams
Texas Skill Players had 80 receptions for 20 or more yards last season– most among Power Conference Teams
Tennessee Offensive Stats & Trends
Tennessee RBs have rushed for 9 TDs in the 1st quarter this season– 3rd-most among FBS Teams
Tennessee WRs averaged a touchdown every 4.3 receptions (13 Rec/3 TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 1.9
Tennessee’s WRs gained 2,897 yards on 202 receptions (14.3 YPR) last season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-2nd-best among SEC defenses.
Tennessee’s offense threw for 3,807 passing yards in 13 games (292.8 YPG) last season — 6th-best among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense allowed 234.9 passing yards per game last season — 5th-worst among SEC defenses.
Tennessee gained 3,807 yards on 292 receptions (13.0 YPR) last season — 5th-best among SEC skill players. Texas’s defense allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception last season — T-2nd-best among SEC defenses.
Texas Defensive Stats & Trends
Texas opponents averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0
Texas opponents averaged 54.3 Passing Attempts per TD (489 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) last season– best in the SEC; Average: 25.9
Texas opponents averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best in the SEC; Average: 4.5
Texas opponents averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best in FBS; Average: 3.9
Texas allowed 9 touchdowns on 292 completions (32.4 Completions Per TD) last season– best in FBS; Average: 12.5
Tennessee Defensive Stats & Trends
Tennessee opponents averaged 6.8 Passing Attempts per TD (34 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0
Tennessee has forced 19 fumbles this season– most in the SEC
Tennessee has forced 19 fumbles this season– 2nd-most in FBS
Tennessee forced 19 fumbles last season– 2nd-most among Power Conference Teams
Tennessee has forced 19 fumbles this season– 2nd-most among Power Conference Teams
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