Troy vs Louisiana Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

• The Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns are a -3.5 point favorite vs. the Troy Trojans
• Troy vs. Louisiana Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN+

Troy (3-2) visit Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium to take on Louisiana (4-2) on Oct. 17 in Lafayette, LA. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:00 pm.

The Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns are betting favorites in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-120).

The Troy vs. Louisiana Over/Under is 47.5 total points.

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Troy vs. Louisiana Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Troy vs Louisiana Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Louisiana will win this game with 57.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

The winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Troy Trojans and the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Troy vs Louisiana Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Louisiana will cover the spread with 55.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns vs Troy Trojans and all games with BetMGM

Troy Best Bets Today

• Troy has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• Troy have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.15 Units / 62% ROI)
• Troy have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.80 Units / 60% ROI)
• Troy has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 7 away games (+3.90 Units / 52% ROI)
• Troy has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.20 Units / 8% ROI)

Louisiana Best Bets Today

• Louisiana has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• Louisiana has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 31% ROI)
• Louisiana has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• Louisiana has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.20 Units / 30% ROI)
• Louisiana have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.20 Units / 27% ROI)

Troy Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Troy Trojans is 2-3 against the spread this college football season (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI).

• Troy is 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 3.1% ROI
• Troy is 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.35 Units / -61.47% ROI
• Troy is 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / 52.25% ROI

Louisiana Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns is 4-1 against the spread this college football season (+2.9 Units / 43.94% ROI).

• Louisiana is 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 8.91% ROI
• Louisiana is 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
• Louisiana is 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI

Troy: Keys to the Game vs. Louisiana

Troy was winless (0-4) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .382

Troy is 9-1 (.900) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2024 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .600

Troy was winless (0-4) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .314

Troy was 1-7 (.125) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-8th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .372

Louisiana: Keys to the Game vs. Troy

Louisiana was 9-1 (.900) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .584

Louisiana was 10-2 (.833) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .628

Louisiana was 10-2 (.833) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– 11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .591

Louisiana was 9-1 (.900) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: .624

Matchup Notes for Troy vs. Louisiana

Louisiana’s QBs threw for 2,105 passing yards in 13 games (just 161.9 YPG) last season — 18th-worst among FBS teams. Troy’s defense allowed just 196.2 passing yards per game last season — 35th-best among FBS defenses.

Louisiana’s offense averaged just 0.9 passing TDs per game last season — T-13th-worst among FBS offenses. Troy’s defense allowed just 1.1 passing TDs per game last season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

Louisiana’s offense threw for 2,105 passing yards in 13 games (just 161.9 YPG) last season — 15th-worst among FBS offenses. Troy’s defense allowed just 196.2 passing yards per game last season — 35th-best among FBS defenses.

Troy’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 9.2% of 924 attempts since the 2024 season — T-29th-worst among FBS offenses. Louisiana’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.8% of attempts since the 2024 season — T-28th-best among FBS defenses.

Troy’s RBs rushed for 1,131 yards on 277 carries (just 4.1 YPC) last season — T-13th-worst among FBS RBs. Louisiana’s defense allowed 5.5 YPC to RBs last season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.

Troy Offensive Stats & Trends

Troy rushed for 5 TDs in the Red Zone last week– most among FBS Offenses

Troy rushed for 5 TDs last week– T-3rd-most among FBS Offenses

Troy RBs picked up first downs on 4 receptions last week– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Troy QBs rushed for 126 yards on 1st down last week– most among FBS Teams

Troy have averaged 21.5 yards per completion (215 yards/10 completions) with over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.9

Louisiana Offensive Stats & Trends

Louisiana completed passes for 40+ yards on 3 of their 24 total passing attempts (12%) last week– T-4th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2%

Louisiana have averaged a touchdown every 34.0 receptions (102 Rec/3 TDs) this season– 5th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.0

Louisiana RBs have fumbled 5 times this season– T-most among FBS Teams

Louisiana have thrown 15 TDs on 484 pass attempts (one TD every 32.3 Pass Attempts) since the 2024 season– 5th-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 18.8

Louisiana Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 34.0 receptions (102 Rec/3 TDs) this season– 5th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.0

Troy Defensive Stats & Trends

Troy allowed 8 receptions for 20+ yards last week– T-2nd-most in FBS

Troy has tackled opponents for a loss on 23 of 96 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

Troy defense allowed 8 completions for 20 or more yards last week– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Troy allowed 8 receptions for 20+ yards last week– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Troy defense allowed 8 completions for 20 or more yards last week– T-2nd-most in FBS

Louisiana Defensive Stats & Trends

Louisiana has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 17 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%.

Louisiana has not allowed an opponent to rush for 10 or more yards on any of their 25 carries on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– T-best in FBS; Average: 17%

Louisiana has allowed 6 TDs in close and late situations this season– T-most in FBS

Louisiana allowed 11 TD passes in close and late situations in the 2023 season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Louisiana has allowed 9 TD passes in close and late situations since the 2024 season– 2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

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