The Cleveland Guardians have a win total of 79.5 entering the 2026 season, according to the latest MLB win totals market at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Guardians Over/Under Wins 2026
- Over 79.5 wins: -105
- Under 79.5 wins: -115
Guardians Win Total Prediction 2026
- Under 80.5 wins (Pick made Feb. 12)
Per the updated MLB odds, I prefer the under on the Guardians’ win total (80.5) for the 2026 season.
It’s a tradition unlike any other, but projections don’t have much faith in the Guardians after winning the last two American League Central titles.
PECOTA projects Cleveland to finish fourth in the division with 75.3 wins, while FanGraphs has this team in the same place with 75.6 victories. Clay Davenport’s projections are the highest on the Guardians, though they are still forecasted to finish under their win total at 78-84.
Projections have been down on the Guardians in recent seasons, but I think this is the year that they finally prove to be right. After all, it took a historic second-half comeback for this team to win 88 games last year.
The Guardians did almost nothing to improve their MLB roster, banking on a 33-year-old José RamÃrez to carry this lineup once again. Cleveland ranked 28th in the majors with a wRC+ of 87 last year, which even includes Ramirez’s 133 wRC+.
Looking ahead to 2026, PECOTA projects the Guardians to score the same number of runs as the Chicago White Sox. Simply put, this is not a lineup I’d feel comfortable betting on to win a third straight division title.
Perhaps an underrated aspect is that the Guardians no longer have a clear pitching advantage within a weak division. Their starting rotation ranked 17th in MLB with a 4.24 FIP last year after ranking 24th in that metric in 2024.
According to RosterResource, Cleveland’s pitching staff ranks 23rd in total projected WAR for the upcoming season, better than only the White Sox in the AL Central.
Maybe the computers are wrong on the Guardians for a third straight season, but I’m guessing they are due for some regression in 2026.
Guardians Win Total History
(Data from Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 82.5 | 88 | Over |
| 2024 | 79.5 | 92 | Over |
| 2023 | 86.5 | 76 | Under |
| 2022 | 76.5 | 92 | Over |
| 2021 | 81.5 | 80 | Under |
| 2020 | 32.5 | 35 | Over |
| 2019 | 90.5 | 93 | Over |
| 2018 | 94.5 | 91 | Under |
| 2017 | 93.5 | 102 | Over |
| 2016 | 85.5 | 94 | Over |
| 2015 | 84.5 | 81 | Under |
| 2014 | 80.5 | 85 | Over |
| 2013 | 77.5 | 92 | Over |
| 2012 | 78.5 | 68 | Under |
| 2011 | 71.5 | 80 | Over |
| 2010 | 74.5 | 69 | Under |
| 2009 | 84.5 | 65 | Under |
| 2008 | 90 | 81 | Under |
| 2007 | 84.5 | 96 | Over |
| 2006 | 90 | 78 | Under |
| 2005 | 83 | 93 | Over |
| 2004 | 74.5 | 80 | Over |
| 2003 | 71.5 | 68 | Under |
| 2002 | 83.5 | 74 | Under |
| 2001 | 88.5 | 91 | Over |
| 2000 | 93.5 | 90 | Under |
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