MLB MVP Odds: AL & NL Favorites, Predictions

For the first time in MLB history, there were repeat MVPs in both leagues following the 2025 campaign.

Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees won a tightly contested American League MVP race, while Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani was a unanimous winner in the National League. Both players won the same trophy in 2024.

Will they continue their reign in 2026? MLB odds for both MVP markets will likely become available in January, but it’s safe to assume that Judge and Ohtani will begin as the betting favorites.

AL MVP Odds: Favorites

Judge figures to start as the AL MVP favorite after doing so in 2025. Judge opened with a +300 price tag before leading the market for much of the year.

However, the race ultimately proved to be more competitive than anyone had expected. Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, who started with +10000 odds last offseason, was a viable candidate after posting the best campaign of his career.

Raleigh was the player and story of the year while leading the Mariners to their first division title since 2001. He led the majors with 60 home runs and paced the AL with 125 RBIs. He finished with a slash line of .247/.359/.589 and a fWAR of 9.1. Of note, FanGraphs’ WAR does a better job of quantifying a catcher’s defensive impact.

Judge, meanwhile, remained the best hitter in the sport, recording an MLB-best fWAR of 10.1 and a wRC+ of 204. He finished the year with a slash line of .331/.457/.688 to go along with 53 home runs and 114 RBIs.

In the end, the group of 30 members (two from each league city) of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) sided with Judge’s case.

Judge received 17 first-place votes and 13 second-place votes, securing the third MVP trophy of his career. He’s the fourth Yankees player to win three MVP awards, joining a group that features Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra, and Joe DiMaggio.

Raleigh finished runner-up, netting 13 first-place votes and 17 second-place votes.

I don’t necessarily believe this year’s race is proof of any voting pattern, given that the pool consists of 30 members. However, it’s the latest example that narrative arguments don’t hold enough weight for that to be a crucial reason for a bet.

I’m going to target players who I think can lead the league in WAR in 2026. Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson could be potential value plays in the opening market based on that philosophy.

Prediction: Bobby Witt Jr.

NL MVP Odds: Favorites

It’d be hard to bet against Ohtani in next year’s NL MVP race. He will certainly begin as the betting favorite after doing so last year, trading at +175 when the odds were first released.

In 2025, Ohtani returned to being a two-way force, adding even more value in his second season with the Dodgers.

At the plate, Ohtani posted a slash line of .282/.392/.622 with a career-high 55 homers and an MLB-best 146 runs. He also led the majors in OPS (1.014). As a pitcher, Ohtani spun a 2.87 ERA in 14 starts, striking out 62 batters and walking nine across 47 innings of work.

The result was another unanimous selection for MVP, earning all 30 first-place votes. He’s now won the MVP trophy in each of the past three seasons, including two in the NL. He has four such trophies in the past five years. All have been unanimous selections.

Barry Bonds is the only player in MLB history to win more MVP awards than Ohtani. Bonds finished his career with seven such trophies, including three in a row (2001-04).

Ohtani could make history by becoming the first player to win four straight MVP awards next year. I don’t plan on picking against him, especially since I expect him to have his strongest pitching campaign to date.

If you were interested in fading Ohtani, New York Mets star Juan Soto could be poised for an excellent year in his second season with the team.

Prediction: Shohei Ohtani

2025 AL MVP Voting

2025 NL MVP Voting

List of AL & NL MVP Winners

MLB Players With Most MVP Awards

Barry Bonds has won the most MLB MVP Awards (seven):

• Barry Bonds: 7
• Shohei Ohtani: 4
• Aaron Judge: 3
• Mike Trout: 3
• Albert Pujols: 3
• Alex Rodriguez: 3
• Mike Schmidt: 3
• Mickey Mantle: 3
• Yogi Berra: 3
• Roy Campanella: 3

MLB Teams With Most MVP Awards

The New York Yankees have the most MLB MVP Awards (25):

• Yankees: 25
• Cardinals: 21
• Dodgers: 16
• Giants: 14
• Athletics: 13

Has an MLB Rookie Ever Won MVP?

Fred Lynn and Ichiro Suzuki are the only rookies to win MVP.

Lynn did it first, winning AL MVP in 1975 after guiding the Boston Red Sox to 95 regular-season wins and an appearance in the World Series. Ichiro won AL MVP in 2001 as the Seattle Mariners tied the MLB record for most wins in a season (116).