MLB Rookie of the Year Odds: AL & NL Favorites, Predictions

Hitters returned to glory in the 2025 MLB Rookie of the Year race.

One season after a pair of pitchers earned Rookie of the Year accolades in 2024, Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz and Atlanta Braves catcher Drake Baldwin secured their respective trophies in 2025. 

Kurtz was unanimously named American League Rookie of the Year, while Baldwin took home the honor in the National League with 21 of the possible 30 first-place votes.

Based on the initial MLB odds (released in January), both players were surprise winners. Kurtz began with +8000 odds, while Baldwin opened at +5000.

AL Rookie of the Year Odds: Favorites

BetMGM has yet to release MLB Rookie of the Year odds for the 2026 season, but there is a chance that Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Trey Yesavage could start as the betting favorite when this market becomes available.

Yesavage, who began the 2025 campaign in Single-A, climbed up the ranks of the Blue Jays’ system throughout the year. He eventually joined the big-league club, making three starts in September before becoming a key part of the rotation in the postseason.

The Blue Jays sent Yesavage to the mound six times, including five starts, on their way to pushing the Los Angeles Dodgers to Game 7 of the World Series. Yesavage kept his composure throughout October, posting a 3.58 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 27 2/3 innings. Thanks to a filthy splitter, Yesavage can pile up the strikeouts over the course of a full season.

Steamer’s early projections (available at FanGraphs) have Yesavage posting a 3.86 ERA across 26 starts during the 2026 campaign. He’s projected for 159 strikeouts in 146 innings.

Although it’s easy to get excited about Yesavage’s stuff, the 2025 ROY race highlighted how much of an advantage hitters have over pitchers when competing for the same trophy. Batters are playing daily, giving them more chances to record the necessary counting stats to win this award.

The Athletics had two different hitters who found themselves at the top of this race throughout the 2025 campaign. Shortstop Jacob Wilson spent much of the summer as the betting favorite before relinquishing that title to Kurtz.

Kurtz, the No. 4 pick in the 2024 draft, made an immediate impact as a left-handed power bat. He hit 36 home runs, tied for 10th in the majors. He recorded 86 RBIs (37th) and an OPS of 1.002 (third) en route to earning all 30 first-place votes. 

Wilson finished second with 23 second-place votes.

I’d be surprised if a player runs away with the Rookie of the Year race in 2026. Still, I’m most interested in Kansas City Royals catcher Carter Jensen. He appeared ready for the big leagues after getting called up last September, hitting .300 with 13 RBIs and three home runs in 20 games.

Prediction: Carter Jensen

NL Rookie of the Year Odds: Favorites

While I have a good idea of what the early 2026 AL Rookie of the Year race could look like, I’m not as certain when it comes to the NL. Honestly, that’s likely a reflection of the competition in 2025.

The NL ROY market was complete chaos all year. There were eight different favorites after this market opened in January: Roki Sasaki, Dylan Crews, Agustín Ramírez, Luisangel Acuña, Jacob Misiorowski, Isaac Collins, Cade Horton, and Baldwin.

Throughout the year, I maintained that Baldwin was the best bet in the market due to his consistent impact. The voters clearly agreed, as he won the NL Rookie of the Year by receiving 21 first-place votes and nine second-place votes. 

Chicago Cubs pitcher Cade Horton netted nine first-place votes to finish second.

Baldwin, a third-round pick in 2022, made his MLB debut on Opening Day. Baldwin finished with a bWAR of 3.3 in 124 games, hitting .274 with 80 RBIs and 19 home runs.

He benefited from the race being less competitive, becoming the 10th player in franchise history to claim this honor. The Braves are tied with the New York Yankees for second among franchises with the most Rookie of the Year winners. The Dodgers lead the way with 18 such players.

Looking ahead to 2026, I’m most interested in San Francisco Giants first baseman Bryce Eldridge. He got called up last September, driving in a pair of doubles and four RBIs in 10 games.

Eldridge, the No. 16 overall pick in the 2023 draft, is the No. 12 overall prospect via MLB Pipeline. If the Giants are ready to bring him up for good, Eldridge could provide some left-handed power as a 21-year-old first baseman.

Prediction: Bryce Eldridge

2025 NL Rookie of the Year Voting

List of AL & NL Rookie of the Year Winners

*There was only one award for both leagues in 1947 and 1948.

MLB Teams With Most Rookie of the Year Awards

The Brooklyn/Los Angeles Dodgers have the most Rookie of the Year Awards (18):

Dodgers: 18
Yankees: 10
Braves: 10
Athletics: 9
Orioles: 8
Reds: 8

Has a Rookie Ever Won the Cy Young Award?

Only one rookie has won the Cy Young Award: Fernando Valenzuela.

Valenzuela was a 21-year-old rookie for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1981 when he led the MLB in strikeouts and lead the Dodgers to the World Series.

Has an MLB Rookie Ever Won MVP?

Two rookies have won MVP: Fred Lynn and Ichiro Suzuki.

Lynn won AL MVP in 1975 after leading the Boston Red Sox to 95 regular-season wins and a World Series appearance in the World Series. Ichiro won AL MVP in 2001 as the Seattle Mariners tied the MLB record for most wins in a season (116).