MLB Rookie of the Year Odds 2026: AL & NL Favorites, Predictions

Detroit Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle and Cincinnati Reds first baseman Sal Stewart closed as the betting favorites in the MLB Rookie of the Year odds at BetMGM.

AL Rookie of the Year Odds 2026: Favorites

Detroit Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle closed as the betting favorite in the AL Rookie of the Year odds at BetMGM. At -10000, he had an implied probability of 99.01% to claim the award.

McGonigle and Chicago White Sox first baseman Munetaka Murakami traded places as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite multiple times this season. McGonigle’s final rise to the top came after Murakami landed on the injured list in late May. Murakami returned in mid-July after more than a month away, giving McGonigle some cushion in this race.

Days before the injury, Murakami passed McGonigle as the market favorite. In mid-May, McGonigle and Murakami briefly shared the lead as co-favorites, with the former pulling ahead.

McGonigle also jumped ahead of Murakami in early May. That followed Murakami passing Cleveland Guardians outfielder Chase DeLauter in late April. DeLauter became the frontrunner in early April, leaping past McGonigle.

McGonigle entered the year as a co-favorite along with Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Kazuma Okamoto. Both players passed Toronto pitcher Trey Yesavage, who had been the frontrunner since the market opened.

In total, there were five different AL Rookie of the Year favorites throughout the year.

AL Rookie of the Year Prediction 2026

Prediction: Kevin McGonigle

McGonigle is my pick to win AL Rookie of the Year. McGonigle, the No. 37 pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, posted a .278 batting average with a 7.1 bWAR in 156 games. He established himself as Detroit’s starting shortstop and a franchise player in his debut season.

Murakami began as a worthy challenger, launching 20 home runs in his first 57 games after I backed him as a 100/1 long shot in the home run leader odds market. However, his path grew much harder after an extended absence. Murakami finished with 35 homers, 77 RBIs, and a 2.3 bWAR in 127 contests.

NL Rookie of the Year Odds 2026: Favorites

Cincinnati Reds first baseman Sal Stewart held the top spot as the betting favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year award before BetMGM pulled the market in late September. At -2500, Stewart had an implied probability of 96.15%.

Stewart became the favorite in late August, passing St. Louis Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt. BetMGM had four different NL Rookie of the Year odds favorites.

Wetherholt led the way as the favorite since late May, when he passed New York Mets pitcher Nolan McLean. Meanwhile, McLean was the favorite for a week after overtaking Stewart.

Stewart’s rise to the top came in April after Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Konnor Griffin got off to a slow start. Griffin passed Stewart ahead of his MLB debut on April 3. Stewart surged into contention after a dominant opening weekend. He was named NL Player of the Week after reaching base 10 times in Cincinnati’s first three games, becoming the first Reds player to do so since 2001.

Before the early-season back-and-forth between Stewart and Griffin, McLean entered the year as the preseason favorite at +340. Griffin overtook him during spring training, though McLean briefly reclaimed the top spot before Opening Day when Griffin didn’t make Pittsburgh’s initial roster.

NL Rookie of the Year Prediction 2026

Prediction: Sal Stewart

After Wetherholt landed on the injured list, Stewart took control of the NL Rookie of the Year race.

Stewart’s offensive numbers were impressive all season. He hit .263 with 32 home runs and 111 RBIs in 162 games. Stewart recorded a bWAR of 1.8.

Wetherholt posted a bWAR of 4.5 due to his defensive impact, but his hitting numbers weren’t nearly as strong.

List of Past AL & NL Rookie of the Year Winners

*There was only one award for both leagues in 1947 and 1948.

MLB Teams With Most Rookie of the Year Awards

The Brooklyn/Los Angeles Dodgers have the most Rookie of the Year Awards (18):

Dodgers: 18
Yankees: 10
Braves: 10
Athletics: 9
Orioles: 8
Reds: 8

Has a Rookie Ever Won the Cy Young Award?

Only one rookie has won the Cy Young Award: Fernando Valenzuela.

Valenzuela was a 21-year-old rookie for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1981 when he led the MLB in strikeouts and lead the Dodgers to the World Series.

Has an MLB Rookie Ever Won MVP?

Two rookies have won MVP: Fred Lynn and Ichiro Suzuki.

Lynn won AL MVP in 1975 after leading the Boston Red Sox to 95 regular-season wins and a World Series appearance in the World Series. Ichiro won AL MVP in 2001 as the Seattle Mariners tied the MLB record for most wins in a season (116).