MLB Picks Today: Predictions for Prop Bets, Moneylines, Over/Under Totals, & Run Lines

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Chicago White Sox's Garrett Crochet delivers a pitch during the first inning of a baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds, Saturday, April 13, 2024, in Chicago.
(AP Photo/Melissa Tamez)
Shane Jackson @Sjacksonmgm Apr 19, 2024, 10:59 AM
  • Friday’s slate will feature 15 MLB games.
  • Garrett Crochet has a strikeout prop of 6.5 against the Phillies.
  • Joe Boyle has a strikeout prop of 4.5 against the Guardians.

Here are MLB betting picks and predictions based on MLB odds for Friday’s schedule.

The slate features all 30 teams, starting with a Marlins-Cubs battle at 2:20 p.m. ET and ending with a Diamondbacks-Giants showdown at 10:15 p.m. ET.

With a full slate of games on deck, here are my favorite bets for Friday’s action:

MLB Picks Today: Friday, April 19

White Sox vs. Phillies – 6:40 p.m. ET

Pick: Garrett Crochet under 6.5 strikeouts (+100)

Chicago White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet has been one of the biggest risers in the starting pitcher landscape this season. 

Bettors were lining up to take his under on 3.5 strikeouts when he made his first MLB start on Opening Day. Now, it costs -130 to bet on Crochet to whiff seven batters in a road tilt against the Philadelphia Phillies.

There is value on the under at +100 or better, especially with THE BAT X projecting 5.95 strikeouts. Crochet has cleared this mark in three of his four starts, including a season-best 10 whiffs in his most recent outing against the Cincinnati Reds.

Crochet has the stuff to rack up strikeouts as long as he’s healthy, but the Phillies have done a solid job against southpaws this year. They rank 15th in the league with a strikeout rate of 23.3% and have an above-average wRC+ of 105.

This will be a good test for Crochet, and this line is at peak value for bettors.

Athletics vs. Guardians – 7:10 p.m. ET

Pick: Joe Boyle under 4.5 strikeouts (-120)

To continue the theme of fading starting pitchers, I like the under on the strikeout prop for Oakland Athletics right-hander Joe Boyle.

Boyle has cleared this mark in each of his last two outings, with five strikeouts against the Washington Nationals and six against the Detroit Tigers. But facing the Cleveland Guardians won’t produce similar results.

The Guardians’ offensive strikeout rate is 20.1%, ranking 24th in baseball. They want to put the ball in play and force teams to make mistakes.

THE BAT X projects Boyle to record 3.9 strikeouts as one of the best MLB betting picks of the slate. 

As long as the under is -130 or better, it’s worth placing this bet before the game’s first pitch on Friday evening.

MLB Moneyline Records for 2024

TeamRecordROI
Brewers11-628.0%
Cubs11-725.2%
Guardians12-623.4%
Yankees13-622.1%
Nationals8-1021.5%
Royals12-721.4%
Pirates11-819.4%
Orioles12-615.2%
Braves12-58.6%
Mets10-85.7%
Angels9-94.6%
Padres11-103.5%
Red Sox10-90.9%
Blue Jays10-90.2%
Cardinals9-10-0.7%
Athletics8-11-1.5%
Phillies11-8-1.6%
Tigers10-8-3.1%
Reds9-9-4.2%
Rangers10-9-6.3%
Rays10-9-8.1%
Mariners9-10-12.1%
Diamondbacks9-10-13.1%
Dodgers12-9-16.4%
Giants8-11-23.8%
Twins6-11-29.7%
Astros6-14-44.9%
Rockies4-15-45.1%
Marlins4-15-52.3%
White Sox3-15-55.0%

MLB Run Line (ATS) Records for 2024

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.
Cubs13-5.722
Guardians12-6.667
Royals12-7.632
Pirates12-7.632
Nationals11-7.611
Orioles11-7.611
Brewers10-7.588
Cardinals11-8.579
Angels10-8.556
Mets10-8.556
Yankees10-9.526
Diamondbacks10-9.526
Red Sox10-9.526
Athletics10-9.526
Blue Jays10-9.526
Padres11-10.524
Rangers9-10.474
Rockies9-10.474
Braves8-9.471
Reds8-10.444
White Sox8-10.444
Dodgers9-12.429
Giants8-11.421
Mariners8-11.421
Twins7-10.412
Phillies7-12.368
Rays7-12.368
Astros7-13.350
Tigers6-12.333
Marlins6-13.316

MLB Over/Under Records for 2024

TeamOver RecordOver Pct.Under Pct.
Brewers12-5-0.706.294
Orioles11-5-2.688.313
Reds12-6-0.667.333
Rays12-7-0.632.368
Braves10-6-1.625.375
Dodgers12-8-1.600.400
Guardians10-7-1.588.412
Pirates11-8-0.579.421
Giants11-8-0.579.421
Marlins11-8-0.579.421
Angels10-8-0.556.444
Padres11-9-1.550.450
Rockies10-9-1.526.474
Mets9-9-0.500.500
Cubs9-9-0.500.500
Blue Jays9-10-0.474.526
Diamondbacks9-10-0.474.526
Rangers9-10-0.474.526
Nationals8-10-0.444.556
Red Sox8-10-1.444.556
Athletics8-10-1.444.556
Astros8-11-1.421.579
Tigers7-10-1.412.588
Twins7-10-0.412.588
Yankees7-11-1.389.611
Phillies7-12-0.369.632
White Sox6-11-1.353.647
Cardinals6-11-2.353.647
Mariners6-12-1.333.667
Royals6-12-1.333.667

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About the Author

Shane Jackson

Read More @Sjacksonmgm

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.