MLB Home Run Props Today: Best Bets, Odds, & Predictions

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Texas Rangers' Marcus Semien watches his two-run home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the ninth inning in Game 5 of the baseball World Series Wednesday, Nov. 1, 2023, in Phoenix.
(AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)
Shane Jackson @Sjacksonmgm Jul 12, 2024, 4:02 PM
  • Get expert betting picks & home run predictions for today's top MLB games.
  • Marcus Semien is +700 to hit a home run against the Astros.

Here are the best MLB home run player props based on MLB odds for today’s schedule:

MLB Home Run Props Today: Friday, July 12

Marcus Semien: +700 to Hit a Home Run

» Bet Marcus Semien to hit a home run today

Rangers vs. Astros – 8:10 p.m. ET

Will Marcus Semien hit a home run today?

Two AL West teams trying to surge into the MLB playoff picture will square off in a weekend series ahead of the All-Star Break.

For the Friday showdown at Minute Maid Park between the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros, I’m placing my bet on Texas’ Marcus Semien as the most promising home run prediction.

His +700 price tag to hit a home run offers a significant potential return, making it a value-packed choice.

Ballpark Pal’s projections consider Semien the 10th-most likely player to hit a homer during Friday’s 15-game slate. That model has a fair price of +410 for him to send one to the seats.

THE BAT X also shows value on Semien blasting one, projecting him with 0.17 home runs.

Semien has launched 12 home runs this year, including one as recently as July 6 against the Tampa Bay Rays. Semien doesn’t have a homer in 13 career at-bats against Houston’s Hunter Brown, but he does have eight hits and an xSLG of 0.774 off the righty.

With odds at +600 or better, I’m confident in Semien’s ability to hit a home run on Friday, making it a bet worth considering.

Top MLB Home Run Picks Today, July 12

Here are the five most-bet home run predictions at the online sportsbook for Friday, July 12:

  1. Gunnar Henderson (+500)
  2. Shohei Ohtani (+525)
  3. Aaron Judge (+200)
  4. Pete Alonso (+450)
  5. Marcell Ozuna (+333)

2024 MLB Home Run Bet Tracker

For transparency, I have compiled a running list of all home run predictions in this daily column since the start of the 2024 MLB season. Multiple third-party apps have tracked all such predictions.

For simplicity, each home run prop has been tracked as one unit.

  • Home Run Prop, Year-to-date (YTD) units: +40.60
DATEWAGERODDSSTAKEWIN/LOSSRESULTYTD
3/28Oneil Cruz HR vs. MIA8501.00WIN8.5040.60
3.28Mookie Betts HR vs. STL4351.00WIN4.35
3/29Yordan Alvarez vs. NYY3751.00LOSS-1.00
4/1Bobby Witt Jr. vs. BAL8001.00WIN8.00
4/2Corbin Carroll vs. NYY9501.00VOID0.00
4/3Jose Altuve vs. TOR6001.00WIN6.00
4/4Jazz Chisholm Jr. vs. STL5001.00LOSS-1.00
4/5Francisco Alvarez vs. CIN4501.00LOSS-1.00
4/11Rafael Devers vs. BAL5501.00VOID0.00
4/17Will Smith vs. WAS6501.00LOSS-1.00
4/19Shohei Ohtani vs. NYM3751.00LOSS-1.00
4/22Ronald Acuna Jr. vs. MIA4301.00LOSS-1.00
4/23Jose Ramirez vs. BOS6751.00WIN6.75
4/24Pete Alonso vs. SF6751.00LOSS-1.00
4/26Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. LAD5751.00LOSS-1.00
5/3Pete Alonso vs. TBR4501.00LOSS-1.00
5/7Will Smith vs. MIA6301.00LOSS-1.00
5/10Marcus Semien vs. COL5501.00LOSS-1.00
5/10Salvador Perez vs. LAA4301.00LOSS-1.00
5/13Daulton Varsho vs. BAL9001.00WIN9.00
5/14Anthony Santander vs. TOR5501.00VOID0.00
5/17Spencer Steer vs. LAD5601.00LOSS-1.00
5/20Mookie Betts vs. ARI5001.00LOSS-1.00
5/21Mike Tauchman vs. ATL7001.00LOSS-1.00
5/24Bobby Witt Jr. vs. TBR4251.00WIN4.25
5/28Gunnar Henderson vs. BOS4251.00LOSS-1.00
5/29Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. MIA4751.00LOSS-1.00
5/31Mookie Betts vs. COL5501.00LOSS-1.00
6/4Jose Ramirez vs. KC5501.00LOSS-1.00
6/5Jose Ramirez vs. KC4801.00VOID0.00
6/6Royce Lewis vs. NYY4251.00VOID0.00
6/7Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. ARI4501.00WIN4.50
6/10Willy Adames vs. TOR5251.00WIN5.25
6/11Pete Alonso vs. MIA4501.00LOSS-1.00
6/12Royce Lewis vs. COL4501.00WIN4.50
6/14Bobby Witt Jr. vs. LAD5001.00LOSS-1.00
6/18Michael Busch vs. SF6501.00LOSS-1.00
6/20Ezequiel Tovar vs. LAD6251.00VOID0.00
6/21Alec Bohm vs. ARI6001.00LOSS-1.00
6/25Adolis Garcia vs. MIL3501.00LOSS-1.00
6/26Willy Adames vs. TEX5251.00LOSS-1.00
6/28Juan Soto vs. TOR5251.00WIN5.25
7/2Yordan Alvarez vs. TOR4251.00WIN4.25
7/3Alex Bregman vs. TOR6001.00LOSS-1.00
7/4Ryan McMahon vs. MIL4501.00LOSS-1.00
7/8Ryan McMahon vs. CIN5001.00LOSS-1.00
7/9Cody Bellinger vs. BAL5251.00LOSS-1.00
7/10Gunnar Henderson vs. CHC5001.00LOSS-1.00

2024 MLB Home Run Leaders

NameHome RunsABs/HR
Aaron Judge3410.09
Shohei Ohtani2912.76
Gunnar Henderson2813.46
Marcell Ozuna2613.58
Anthony Santander2414.42
Rafael Devers2313.57
José Ramírez2316.04
Juan Soto2314.87
Josh Naylor2215.18
Christian Walker2216.73
Bryce Harper2114.38
Brent Rooker2114.38
Cal Raleigh2015.75
Pete Alonso1919.26
Yordan Alvarez1917.95
Teoscar Hernández1919.16
Ketel Marte1918.89
Kyle Schwarber1916.89
Kyle Tucker1911.26
Christopher Morel1818.94
Bryan Reynolds1821.56
Corey Seager1817.50
Giancarlo Stanton1814.44

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About the Author

Shane Jackson

Read More @Sjacksonmgm

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.