MLB Home Run Props Today: Best Bets, Odds, & Predictions

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Boston Red Sox's Rafael Devers reacts to hitting a single against the Seattle Mariners during the first inning of a baseball game Sunday, March 31, 2024, in Seattle.
(AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)
Shane Jackson @Sjacksonmgm Apr 11, 2024, 12:33 PM
  • Thursday’s MLB slate has five games on the schedule.
  • Rafael Devers is +525 to hit a homer for the Red Sox on Thursday.

Here are the best MLB home run player props based on MLB odds for Thursday’s schedule.

This daily home run props column remains hot, with Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. becoming the fifth successful home run pick (in 10 attempts) since Opening Day. His blast on Wednesday cashed a +475 ticket.

So, who will send one to the seats on Thursday?

MLB Home Run Props Today: Thursday, April 11

Rafael Devers: +525 to Hit a Home Run

Orioles vs. Red Sox – 7:10 p.m. ET

After a pair of All-Star nods in the last three years, Rafael Devers is off to a quiet start to the 2024 season. He’s hitting .184 with two home runs and three RBIs through 10 games.

I suspect that will change quickly, perhaps as soon as Thursday evening when there is value in betting on his bat.

Devers is +525 to hit a home run against the Baltimore Orioles, for an implied probability of 16%. 

Most projections believe he has a better chance than that, with THE BAT X forecasting .21 home runs for Devers and Ballpark Pal’s fair odds being around +424.

This daily home run props column has been focused on finding value, a feat much easier with BetMGM’s juicy home run odds. It certainly doesn’t hurt when there is a solid price on a talented hitter like Devers.

Devers has hit 30 or more home runs in two of his last three seasons, with the lone exception being a 27-blast campaign in 2022. Two of his seven hits this year have been homers.

I’ll take my chances with him clearing the fence at Fenway Park on Thursday.

2024 MLB Home Run Leaders

PlayerHRsABs Per HR
Tyler O'Neill65.3
Mike Trout66.8
Mookie Betts510.0
Marcell Ozuna58.8
Yordan Alvarez412.3
Adolis García411.3
Teoscar Hernández413.3
Shea Langeliers48.0
Isaac Paredes410.5
Fernando Tatis Jr.413.3
Christian Yelich48.5
CJ Abrams310.7
Pete Alonso315.3
Jose Altuve316.0
Dominic Canzone39.7
Michael Conforto314.0
Maikel Garcia315.0
Nolan Gorman315.0
Riley Greene313.0
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.315.7
Bryce Harper312.7
Brandon Marsh310.7
Ketel Marte315.7
MJ Melendez311.0
Christopher Morel314.3
Shohei Ohtani320.0
Edward Olivares39.3
Matt Olson313.7
Giancarlo Stanton313.3
Spencer Steer313.3
Christian Walker316.0
Taylor Ward315.3

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About the Author

Shane Jackson

Read More @Sjacksonmgm

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.