Here are today’s home run predictions based on the latest MLB odds:
Home Run Predictions Today: Friday, June 5
- Washington Nationals OF James Wood vs. Diamondbacks (+360)
Who Will Hit a Home Run Today?
I’m predicting Washington Nationals outfielder James Wood will hit a home run on Friday night against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field.
After earning his first All-Star nod last year, Wood has picked up where he left off by recording a 2.6 bWAR through 63 games. He’s clubbed 16 home runs and 39 RBIs so far this season.
Wood’s advanced metrics are even more telling. According to Baseball Savant, Wood ranks in the 100th percentile in average exit velocity (96.1) and barrel rate (25%). He’s also in the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate (58.6%).
The reason why all of that matters is that Arizona right-hander Merrill Kelly is giving up a lot of hard contact this year. Kelly, who is 5-3 with a 5.06 ERA, ranks in the 18th percentile in hard-hit rate (44.1%) and in the first percentile in barrel rate (16.4%) allowed this year.
Basically, a player like Wood should be able to tee off on Kelly tonight. As such, Ballpark Pal’s projections have Wood as the seventh-most likely player to hit a home run during Friday’s MLB slate, projecting fair odds of +352.
I like the idea of backing Wood at +350 or better.
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