- After UConn was the early betting favorite, Kansas is now at the top of the odds table.
- Kansas tickets account for nearly one-third of the market handle.
Before you know it, another season of college basketball will be here again. Fortunately, the college basketball odds table never went anywhere.
BetMGM opened a fresh market for the 2024 college basketball national championship just minutes after UConn cut down the nets in April. So for ambitious handicappers who like to establish early positions, here’s a look at next year’s NCAAB odds for the 2024 national championship, as well as a few notes and numbers to consider before betting.
College Basketball Futures: NCAAB Odds for the 2024 National Championship
| Team | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas | +1000 | +2200 |
| Duke | +1300 | +1300 |
| Kentucky | +1400 | +1400 |
| Purdue | +1400 | +1600 |
| Michigan State | +1600 | +2500 |
| UConn | +2000 | +1100 |
| Arizona | +2000 | +1600 |
| Marquette | +2000 | +2000 |
| Miami (FL) | +2000 | +3000 |
| Houston | +2200 | +2200 |
| Arkansas | +2500 | +2500 |
| Gonzaga | +3000 | +2200 |
| UCLA | +3000 | +2200 |
| North Carolina | +3000 | +2500 |
| Creighton | +3000 | +2500 |
| Tennessee | +3000 | +3500 |
| Villanova | +3000 | +4000 |
| Alabama | +3500 | +1400 |
| Texas | +3500 | +3300 |
| USC | +3500 | +4000 |
| Baylor | +4000 | +3500 |
UConn Again? What to Expect From the Huskies in 2024
UConn should field a competitive, robust defense of its 2023 national championship next season, but the Huskies will certainly have holes to fill.
Adam Sanogo, Andre Jackson Jr., and Jordan Hawkins are left the state of Connecticut for green pastures in the professional basketball landscape. That’s about 40 points and 18 rebounds per game that UConn will need to replace.
So Dan Hurley and the Huskies will certainly have their work cut out, but a fresh cadre of new troops should keep them competitive in the new year. Stephon Castle is a five-star combo guard coming into the fold, and Donovan Clingan should step into a larger role this year. The overall recruiting class ranks among the best in college basketball.
This isn’t a team I would buy at the top of the market, which is exactly where UConn (+2000) has been for much of the early offseason. In the coming months, there could be more value to consider down the table.
With all the player adjustments, I’ll want to see what UConn looks like over the non-conference portion of the season. I would consider coming into the market on UConn at that point – even if I end up with a number that’s ultimately less lucrative.
History of UConn National Championships
| UConn Championship Year | Final Record | Next Season Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 31-8 | ? |
| 2014 | 32-8 | Missed NCAAT |
| 2011 | 32-9 | Lost Round of 64 |
| 2004 | 33-6 | Lost, Round of 32 |
| 1999 | 34-2 | Lost, Round of 32 |
College Basketball Championship Odds: Contenders to Know for 2024
Duke is one of the top current market favorites to win next year’s national championship at +1300. The online sportsbook must have liked what it saw out of Jon Scheyer in his first year as the successor to Coach K’s Duke basketball empire.
About eight percent of the early NCAAB championship odds market is behind Duke.
Early betting action seems to indicate that Kansas (+1000) is the early darling for both sharp and square bettors alike. I asked the team at BetMGM for an early market breakdown in Mid-May, and the numbers for Kansas were astronomical, considering the calendar.
Nearly 19% of tickets and 31% of the overall market handle had lined up behind Kansas. The big financial liability is the likely cause of Kansas moving from +1600, where it opened the market, to +1200, where it is now.
Michigan State, the No. 2 most popular team at BetMGM, also has a significant handle. About 14% of tickets and 17% of market handle like another run from Tom Izzo and the Spartans next March.
Bronny James and USC have been a popular discussion point, but the Trojans haven’t attracted even one percent of the overall market handle yet.
March Madness Sleepers: Teams to Watch Down the Odds Board
Maryland is the most interesting name here, as the Terps have received some pretty serious action this spring. The Terrapins opened the market at 100-to-1, and some prominent bettors felt that was far too high for Kevin Willard. Despite less than five percent of the overall handle, Maryland was adjusted from +10000 all the way down to +4000 in the spring. It’s currently +6000.
Not too far west of College Park is Morgantown, where West Virgnia has been uncharacteristically active in the transfer portal.
WVU has spent most of the early NIL era as a buffet for bigger teams to eat off of. That seems to have changed with new AD Wren Baker and a fresh philosophy on NIL infrastructure. RaeQuan Battle (Montana State, 18 ppg), Jose Perez (Manhattan, 19 ppg), and Jesse Edwards (Syracuse, 15 ppg & 10 rpg) were all part of an immaculate group of add-ons.
West Virginia had moved from +8000 to +6600 early this offseason after the transfer portal successes and some sharp bets. Bob Huggins’ resignation blew up the Mountaineers’ off-season and temporarily knocked WVU off the board; unexpectedly, West Virginia returned to the board in an even better position, at +6000.
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