March Madness Upset Predictions: Most Likely 2026 Cinderella Teams

March Madness is all about identifying underdogs in an oversized bracket. But with all the noise created by a 68-team field, it can be hard to lock onto the right teams with the right matchups in front of them.

That’s why I’m here. I’ve spent the last couple of days scouring every corner of the bracket and cross-referencing it against BetMGM’s evolving college basketball futures market. 

The result is a solid list of underdogs and Cinderellas that are worth paying attention to as you make decisions about your brackets and bets this week.

South Florida

South Florida is a top-50 KenPom team that hasn’t lost a game since January, so it’s dangerous in this spot no matter what. But if Louisville’s best player, Mikel Brown, can’t get healthy for this game, South Florida could go from a dangerous first-round dog to a Sweet 16 team pretty quickly.

Brown hasn’t played since Feb. 28 due to a back injury, and he’s going to make sure he’s healthy before he plays – he’s a projected lottery pick this summer and understandably doesn’t want to do anything to affect his draft stock. But even if he does play, the nature of a back injury is that you’re not quite right until you’re back to 100 percent. 

That leaves a lot of good paths forward for the Bulls, who feel a little underweight to me at +165. The Sweet 16 odds market does a better job expressing how live they are as a potential second-weekend team, pricing them at +650. That’s shorter than almost every other team that isn’t a No. 5 seed or higher. 

Saint Mary’s 

Between Saint Mary’s and Texas A&M, only one has beaten an opponent this season ranked in the KenPom top 25. Care to take a guess?

The answer is, of course, Saint Mary’s, which beat Gonzaga by 11 in its regular-season finale. The Gaels are a tournament staple, and this year’s team plays exceptionally slow. Their first-round battle against Texas A&M will be a battle of pace, where the winning team will likely be the one that is more successful in dictating the speed of the game. 

If Saint Mary’s gets to the second round – something they’ve done three of the last four years, by the way – they’ll most likely get a game with Houston. The Cougars play slow too, which means it’ll be a game with few possessions and high variability. Houston will be a rightful favorite, but it wouldn’t take much variance in a low-possession game for a monster upset. 

If everyone in your bracket has Florida vs. Houston in the South region Elite Eight, a Saint Mary’s upset in the second round would be an aggressive game theory play. It’s also one that’s supported by the current market, with Saint Mary’s a noticeably short +260 to advance to the Sweet 16. 

BYU

As a Big 12 fan, I can tell you that BYU did not have a particularly good February. But I’ve also watched the press conferences where Kevin Young and team have talked about how they figured some things out from that bad stretch, and I was encouraged by the results in early March. That included a win over Texas Tech and a tight battle with Houston in the Big 12 quarterfinals.

In technical terms, BYU has what we might call a wide distribution of outcomes. They could become the latest team to get upset by a First Four team in the first round, or AJ Dybantsa could get hot and play them past Texas, Gonzaga, and Purdue into the Elite Eight. 

Gonzaga and Purdue are tough teams to project on their own, which makes a dynamic player like Dybantsa a fascinating wildcard to throw into the mix. 

I don’t think this is one of the better picks on this list. But if BYU is trailing Arizona by four with five minutes to play and a Final Four bid on the line, I don’t think I’ll be all that shocked. 

Iowa

No. 9 seeds usually have short shelf lives. Their games against No. 8 seeds are generally coinflips, and they’ve got to play a No. 1 seed two days later. 

Despite that, Iowa is +650 to make the Sweet 16, which was short enough for me to stop what I was doing and write it down in my notes. The implication is that Florida could go down earlier than anticipated, and that checks with my general sense of that particular tournament region. 

If you’re skeptical of Florida and want to position yourself to benefit from an upset, Iowa is a decent team to shoot your shot with. And if you want more data on how often a No. 1 seed misses the Sweet 16, I did all the homework and wrote it up for you at that link.

Santa Clara

The Broncos took two out of three from Saint Mary’s this year and led Gonzaga at halftime during the West Coast championship game. This is not a charity bid – they’re good.

I have Santa Clara beating an inconsistent Kentucky team in the first round. The bigger question is whether or not the Broncos can mount a real tournament run with a knockout blow against Iowa State. Some metrics have the Cyclones as a top-five team in this bracket. 

Having watched a lot of both teams this month, I’m pretty skeptical. But Iowa State also has a long history of early exits in the NCAA Tournament, which makes this Round of 32 game an interesting spot to consider an upset pick. 

Even if Iowa State loses one game later, a Santa Clara pick is a great way to earn yourself major points (in a bracket game) or a big return (in a betting context). Unless you like Iowa State to break out of its historical pattern and finally mount that big NCAA run this year, this is an upset you should probably consider, even if it doesn’t quite line up on paper. All things considered, I think the reward is worth the risk. 

VCU 

VCU has made a lot of NCAA Tournaments in the last 20 years, but the Rams have won a lot fewer games than you probably realize. They last made the Round of 32 in 2016. They’ve only won one NCAA game since Shaka Smart left Richmond. The Final Four run is now officially 15 years old.

This feels like a year where all that can change. VCU enters the field as a dangerous team with a 16-1 record since mid-January. North Carolina is a short favorite to advance without freshman forward Caleb Wilson. He was averaging close to 20 points and 10 rebounds per game.

North Carolina could have enough to advance without Wilson. But VCU will surely be a popular upset pick, both because of the brand name and because of Wilson’s absence. The bigger question is whether VCU can also knock out an Illinois team that has mildly underachieved over the last five years. 

UCF

This is the one I truly did not see coming. UConn is the No. 1 liability to win the title at BetMGM, and Dan Hurley is a psychotic coach whose intensity must be respected when filling out the bracket. Another deep UConn run would surprise no one.

Then, I saw the UCF price to make the Sweet 16: +900. 

Yes, that’s still a long price to win two games. But when you’re a 2-to-1 dog to advance to the second round, and your second-round opponent will likely be UConn, you’d expect that number to be longer than 9-to-1, no?

After doing some work in this section of the bracket… the signs are there. 

UConn has regressed offensively and plays at a slow tempo, which means there are shorter possessions in a game and more opportunities for negative variance to have an effect. Their adjusted offensive efficiency is a little outside the typical zone for a top-level contender. 

The Huskies are also 7-4 since Feb. 4, which isn’t a great record in a top-heavy conference like the Big East. That includes a 2-2 record in Quad 1 games, which is virtually everything UConn will face after the first round.

Do I think UCF is primed to deliver a shocking upset? I’m skeptical. But UConn may be way more vulnerable than many of us probably imagined a week ago. So if you’re thinking about an upset in this corner of the bracket, don’t be afraid to be bold and forecast something a little crazy. UCF would qualify. 

March Madness Most Likely Cinderella Teams

• Saint Mary’s
• South Florida
• Santa Clara
• VCU
• Iowa