49ers vs. Ravens Prediction: 2 Bets for Week 16, Monday Night Football

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San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) runs during an NFL football game against the New York Giants, Thursday, Sept. 21, 2023, in Santa Clara, Calif.
(Scot Tucker/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Dec 22, 2023, 12:13 PM
  • The 49ers are -5.5 against the Ravens.
  • Both teams earned road wins and covers in Week 15.
  • Currently, the 49ers sit atop the NFC, while the Ravens lead the AFC.

Ahead of Week 16’s Monday Night Football contest, I’m here to provide a pair of 49ers vs. Ravens predictions. 

This matchup pits two of the NFL’s outstanding teams against one another. 

Having won four straight games, Baltimore (11-3) leads the AFC, one game ahead of the Miami Dolphins. 

The 49ers, meanwhile, have captured six straight wins since their bye week and lead the NFC at 11-3. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Monday’s game, as well as my bets for the contest. 

49ers vs. Ravens Betting Odds

  • San Francisco 49ers Moneyline: -250
  • Baltimore Ravens Moneyline: +195
  • Game Spread: San Francisco 49ers -5.5
  • Game Total: 47 Points

49ers vs. Ravens Predictions

49ers-Ravens Total Under 47 Points (-110) 

This game fits a number of historically profitable betting systems. 

Since the 2018-19 season, games featuring two teams on extended rest proved low-scoring in nature. 

When both teams have at least eight days between games, the under has cashed at a 68% clip. Just this season, that system is 30-9 (77%). 

Additionally, although it has proven less profitable recently, primetime games tend to finish under the total. 

Since 2018-19, primetime games are 173-120-3 (59%) to the under, including 62-39-1 on Monday Night Football. 

From a matchup standpoint, both teams possess outstanding defenses. 

Baltimore ranks second in defensive DVOA, while San Francisco sits fourth, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Additionally, the Ravens and 49ers are first and second, respectively, in opponent offensive touchdowns per game. 

Take the under on Monday as a result. 

Christian McCaffrey Over 83.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Almost out of nowhere, the Ravens rush defense has completely imploded. 

In the first nine weeks of the season, Baltimore’s defense ranked eighth in both rush EPA per play and rush success rate. 

Since Week 10, Baltimore ranks 31st in rush EPA per play and 30th in rush success rate. 

That’s going to put them in trouble against a 49ers team that excels at running the ball. Since Week 10, San Francisco ranks first in rush EPA per play and second in rushing success rate. 

For the entire season, the 49ers are fourth in adjusted line yards per attempt facing a Ravens team 14th in the corresponding defensive category, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Regarding McCaffrey, he’s cleared this number in nine of 14 games this season. 

Shrink the sample down to 11 San Francisco wins, and bettors will find the Stanford product is 9-2 to the over. 

As a result, back McCaffrey to clear what feels like a low number against a declining defense.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.