The Florida Swing will kick off this week with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches at PGA National.
This is the third year of the event, which was formerly the Honda Classic.
Since it is not a PGA Tour signature event and is sandwiched in between two signature events and the Arnold Palmer Invitational, plus the Players Championship, a number of the bigger names are taking the week off.
Historically, this was one of the tougher tracks on the PGA Tour until a year ago.
A score of -10 or better had been enough to win this event in eight of the last 10 years, but Joe Highsmith set a tournament record last year, finishing at 19-under to claim his first career win.
This was due to par being converted to 71 instead of 70 and overseed taking away from the fast and firm conditions.
Players who can make birdies in bunches and putt well on Bermuda greens should do well this week.
*odds as of Feb. 24
Cognizant Classic Prediction
Ryan Gerard and Shane Lowry are predicted to win the Cognizant Classic with a 5.88% implied probability, according to betting markets. Nicolai Hojgaard is next at 4.76%.
Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.
Cognizant Classic Best Bets
Alex Smalley Outright Winner (+4000)
Admittedly, this is a tough week with a number of top players not playing and a few others withdrawing on Monday.
While many will likely be on the players at the top of the board in Gerard and Lowry, it might be worth looking down the board a bit to find some value.
Smalley finished T-18 at this event a year ago and seems to play well in Florida. He also finished T-14 at the Players a year ago. He is a streaky putter, but does putt well on Bermuda greens, highlighted by a T-3 finish at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship last fall.
Brooks Koepka Top-20 Finish (+120)
This will be Koepka’s third event back on the PGA Tour, and while he’s been average to above average off the tee, his putting has held him back. Even though it’s two starts, he ranks second-to-last on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting.
I expect that to change this week with two full weeks off to practice, and playing in his home state of Florida.
Against a weak field, getting plus money for a T-20 seems like solid value.
Doug Ghim Top-20 Finish (+275)
This is purely based on course history.
Ghim has finished inside the top 20 each of the last two years (T-11 last year and T-16 in 2024). He also plays his best golf on shorter courses and has had some success on Bermuda greens.
His best finish this year is T-55, but returning to the East Coast, where he has played his best golf, could be what he needs to turn things around.
Doug Ghim Top-20 Finish +275
The BetMGM online sportsbook is the premier destination for weekly PGA Tour odds and more golf betting opportunities throughout the season.
From futures odds for The Masters or U.S. Open to parlays and prop bets, there’s non-stop excitement for everyone. And with BetMGM promos for existing users, sometimes you can lock in a bigger potential payout with a sportsbook Odds Boost or Multi-Sport Parlay Boost.
If you don’t have a sportsbook account, sign up for a new account with a sportsbook welcome offer.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
