- Arsenal is predicted to be a 2.5-goal home favorite against Burnley.
- Arsenal has won each of its last 15 EPL home matches against promoted teams.
- My Arsenal vs Burnley prediction is Arsenal After 30 Minutes (-130).
Arsenal continues its charge toward a league title as lofty favorites against Burnley.
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal claimed a 1-0 win over West Ham in controversial fashion last weekend. Currently, Arsenal holds a five-point advantage over Manchester City atop the league table.
Burnley have already suffered relegation from the top flight. In better news for the Clarets, they snatched a point in a 2-2 draw against Aston Villa on Matchday 36.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs Burnley prediction.
Arsenal vs Burnley: Premier League Odds
Burnley vs Arsenal Prediction
Based on Burnley’s penchant for allowing chances early against good attacks and Arsenal’s extended rest period, my Arsenal vs Burnley prediction is Arsenal – First 30 Minutes (-130).
Arsenal need only win Monday’s match to remain in pole position for the EPL title. While it wouldn’t surprise me to see Arsenal cover the 2.5-goal spread, I like this prop as an alternative.
When these teams met at Turf Moor, Arsenal raced out to a 2-0 advantage after 35 minutes. Viktor Gyokeres opened the scoring after only 15 minutes.
Burnley failed to put a shot on target against the potent Arsenal defense for the entire match. The defense surrendered 2.33 post-shot xG inside the first 45 minutes.
That record extends to other matches against top-tier EPL sides. Recently, Burnley hosted Manchester City as a home underdog at Turf Moor.
Erling Haaland gave the visitors a lead after only five minutes. In the first 30 minutes of the match, City gained a 1.93-0.51 post-shot expected goals advantage after a half hour.
Burnley also traveled to Chelsea on February 21st. The Blues join Arsenal and City as the only Premier League teams to clear 70 expected goals this season.
In that match, Burnley fell behind after only four minutes. Across the entire first half, Burnley amassed only 0.08 post-shot expected goals, per FotMob.
Irrespective of their opponent, Burnley lost the first 30 minutes nine times in 18 road matches. Two of their “successes” saw them fall behind on 31 and 32 minutes.
Accordingly, I predict Burnley falls behind quickly as a sizable dog against a team incentivized to run up the score.
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