- Arsenal is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home favorite against Chelsea.
- Chelsea has conceded at least one goal in 24 straight EPL matches as an underdog.
- My Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction is the Arsenal 1H Moneyline (+110).
Arsenal continue their charge toward a league title with a home fixture against Chelsea.
Mikel Arteta’s side throttled rivals Tottenham 4-1 on Sunday. The win gives Arsenal a five-point cushion atop the league table, having played one more game than chasers Man City.
Chelsea drew 1-1 as home favorites to Burnley on Sunday, largely due to a Chelsea red card. Liam Rosenior’s side arrives at Sunday’s clash having won points in six straight matches.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction.
Arsenal vs Chelsea: Premier League Odds
Chelsea vs Arsenal: Prediction
Based on Chelsea’s slow starts as a market underdog and Arsenal’s early attacking record, my Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction is the Arsenal 1H Moneyline (+110).
Oddsmakers priced Chelsea as a pup three times this season, including once away from home. Generally, the Chelsea attack struggled to create early chances.
At home to Arsenal, Chelsea created only 0.29 xG and 0.1 post-shot xG in the opening half. Even more concerning? Arsenal sent out a backup central defense in that fixture.
Chelsea also struggled as road underdogs against Manchester City. In that first half, the Blues generated only 0.2 xG and failed to put a shot on target.
The Blues did manage to score a first-half goal against Liverpool as very slight home underdogs (+190). However, it came very unexpectedly.
Moises Caicedo hit a screamer worth only 0.04 xG/0.09 post-shot xG inside 15 minutes. That proved the only shot on target for Chelsea in the opening frame.
If those metrics continue, the question becomes whether Arsenal can find an early tally. At home, Arteta’s attack has found a first-half goal nine times in 13 tries.
Meanwhile, Chelsea’s defense struggled in its visit to Man City. The defense surrendered 0.86 post-shot xG to City and struggled in League Cup ties against Arsenal.
In the first leg at home, Arsenal scored inside 10 minutes against Chelsea. Ben White’s header registered as a 0.9 post-shot xG chance against a comparable Chelsea defense.
While Arsenal failed to score in the second leg at home, the game state called for a strong defensive presence.
Pair those performances with Wesley Fofana’s absence in the Chelsea defense and I predict Arsenal take a first-half lead at home.
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