Leeds vs Man City Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

After a strong home performance against Newcastle, Man City aims to complete the league double over Leeds. 

Pep Guardiola’s side currently sits second in the league table, five points adrift of Arsenal. However, City still has a game in hand on their title rivals. 

Leeds earned a 1-1 draw at Aston Villa on Sunday. Manager Daniel Farke’s squad arrives at Saturday’s match having earned points in five of the previous six. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Leeds vs Man City prediction. 

Leeds vs Man City: Premier League Odds

Man City vs Leeds: Prediction

Based on Leeds’ weak defensive record as a market underdog and City’s success against this defense at home, my Leeds vs Man City prediction is Man City 1H Over 0.5 (-165). 

Although it’s a lot of juice to consider laying, City offers some reassuring metrics for this match. 

Through 27 fixtures, City scored a first-half goal 19 times for a 70.4% hit rate. Meanwhile, the implied probability of these odds is 62.3%. 

One of those achievements came easily at home against Leeds. City found the scoresheet inside 120 seconds vs. Leeds and led 2-0 at the interval. 

From an underlying metrics standpoint, City actually ran unlucky in the first half. Guardiola’s attack scored two goals off 2.67 xG and 2.74 post-shot xG in the opening 45 minutes. 

In general, Leeds has struggled to keep good attacks out early. 

Farke’s defense faced a pair of top-three attacks in its last five matches. Against Arsenal and Chelsea, Leeds allowed at least one first-half tally on both occasions. 

Expand the sample to include all five of Leeds’ matches against the three best attacks by xG – City, Arsenal and Chelsea – and bettors will find they allowed a first-half goal four times. 

Pair those defensive trends with City’s earlier success against this team, and I predict the visitors get out to a fast start on Saturday.