Below, bettors can find Premier League odds and a Brentford vs Liverpool prediction for Saturday’s fixture at the Gtech Community Stadium.
Brentford vs Liverpool: Premier League Odds
Liverpool vs Brentford Prediction
If Alexander Isak and Cody Gakpo miss Saturday’s fixture against Brentford, my Brentford vs Liverpool prediction is the Total Under 2.5 Goals (+138).
The market already intrigues me at the price given Liverpool’s low-event matches so far.
At home against Manchester City on Matchday 6, the Reds defense looked impressive. Up until Ryan Gravenberch received his marching orders, Liverpool kept a clean sheet.
City ran very lucky from that point forward, scoring three goals compared to 1.3 expected goals. Even by post-shot xG, which carries higher scoring chances, City reached only 1.7.
Irrespective of game state or opponent, Liverpool recorded strong defensive metrics so far. Andoni Iraola’s defense conceded 7.2 expected goals and 6.6 post-shot xG.
It includes some strong performances against Bournemouth (0.8 xG, 1.0 psxG) and Newcastle United (1.4 xG, 1.3 psxG).
Brentford, meanwhile, has benefitted from some poor goalkeeping. Keith Andrews’ attack averages two goals per game, but it could see some attacking regression soon.
The Bees’ 12 goals came against 9.3 post-shot xG. Most of that overperformance came in recent matches against inferior defenses.
Brentford scored two goals apiece off 0.2 psxG against Bournemouth and 0.6 psxG against Aston Villa.
For Liverpool, I question how the attack contributes on short rest. The Reds face a midweek Champions League road match before heading to London on Saturday.
If Isak – their leading scorer – and Gakpo – a chief creator – miss the match, it further complicates Liverpool’s ability to create chances.
Accordingly, my expectation is this match will fail to clear this line at the rate the odds imply.
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