Arsenal vs Leeds Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Below, bettors can find Premier League odds and an Arsenal vs Leeds prediction for their Saturday fixture at the Emirates.

Arsenal vs Leeds: Premier League Odds

Leeds vs Arsenal Prediction

Based on Arsenal’s misleading defensive record and Leeds’ relatively easy set of opponents for the attack, my Arsenal vs Leeds prediction is Leeds Under 0.5 Goals (-108).

Leeds, after scoring in four straight matches, failed to score at home before the break. However, the strength of schedule for the attack leaves a lot to be desired.

By last year’s expected goals data, Leeds has faced only one top-five unit so far. That came on Matchday 3 against Brighton, which lost both central defenders over the transfer window.

It renders Saturday’s trip to Arsenal the hardest test for Leeds to date. Last year, Arsenal led the Premier League in expected goals against at 33.1.

More impressive? The gap between Arsenal and second-place Manchester City is as big as the gap between Manchester City and 13th-placed Everton!

Leeds failed to score in both fixtures against the current holders. The attack simultaneously failed to consistently find the target across two meetings.

Daniel Farke’s attack generated 0.15 expected goals and 0.42 post-shot xG in the last meeting at Elland Road. At the Emirates, Leeds created a mere 0.17 xG and 0.14 post-shot xG.

It renders the spot a potential buy-low opportunity on Arsenal. After surrendering only one goal in their first four matches, the defense allowed three goals at Brighton.

However, Arsenal’s defense ran unlucky in that fixture. The Seagulls scored a trio of goals compared to 1.3 expected goals and 1.9 post-shot xG.

For the season, Mikel Arteta’s side has allowed only 3.8 expected goals and four post-shot xG.

At just north of 50% implied probability, I predict Arsenal keep a clean sheet at a higher frequency in Saturday’s opener.