Aston Villa vs Man City Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Below, bettors can find Premier League odds and an Aston Villa vs Man City prediction for Matchday 8 at Villa Park.

Aston Villa vs Man City: Premier League Odds

Man City vs Aston Villa Prediction

Based on Manchester City’s misleading defensive record and the price associated with Villa’s team total, my Aston Villa vs Man City prediction is Aston Villa Over 1.5 Goals (+175).

The price attached to this prop market fails to account for how bad Manchester City’s defense is playing.

Entering Matchday 8, Manchester City conceded only seven goals. Twice all year, an opponent cleared this line against Enzo Maresca’s defense.

Both occurrences came in the last three matches, though, with Ipswich Town reaching two on a penalty kick. Still, Manchester City has run incredibly lucky in defense up until this point.

The embattled club surrendered seven goals compared to 10.4 expected goals and 10 post-shot xG.

It includes some concerning performances against inferior opposition. Bournemouth scored one goal off two post-shot xG while Coventry City failed to score off 1.8 psxG.

Three matches ago, City surrendered three tallies to Sunderland. Last season, the Black Cats finished as one of the worst attacks in the Premier League by expected goals.

It didn’t stop the visitors from creating 4.2 expected goals and 3.3 post-shot xG against City.

Both teams will play this fixture on short rest. While City enjoy a one-day rest edge over Villa, it doesn’t mitigate the fact the defense remains untrustworthy.

Villa, after failing to score in each of its first three matches, has simultaneously started to find some attacking form. In the last four EPL matches, the attack averaged 1.55 psxG per 90.

Even if you throw out a fluky attacking performance at Tottenham, the attack still created 1.46 psxG per 90 in the remaining three. In all three, the attack scored at least once.

Given those factors, I predict Villa clears this line at a higher rate than the odds imply.