Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Aston Villa will try to complete the league double over Chelsea as home underdogs on Wednesday. 

Villa lost 2-0 at Wolves on Friday, the second straight match in which Unai Emery’s side dropped points. After Manchester United’s win, Villa sit fourth in the table. 

Chelsea lost 2-1 at Arsenal on Sunday, ending a six-match unbeaten run. Earlier this season, Chelsea lost 2-1 at home to Villa, who came from behind to win. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Aston Villa vs Chelsea prediction. 

Aston Villa vs Chelsea: Premier League Odds

Chelsea vs Aston Villa: Prediction

Based on Aston Villa’s attacking success as underdogs and lack of defensive prowess, my Aston Villa vs Chelsea prediction is Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (-110). 

This SGP cashed with ease when the teams met at Stamford Bridge. A 2-1 Villa win featured over four combined expected goals, with each team clearing 1.9. 

Over the last four meetings between these sides, this SGP cashed three times.

On Wednesday, Villa gets to play the role of a home underdog. This season, that positioning has treated the attack well. 

Villa created 2.7 xG as home dogs against Arsenal and 1.9 at home against Manchester United. 

At the same time, the Villa defense remains a heavy negative regression candidate. This season, Emery’s defense has allowed 30 goals off 41 expected, per understat.com. 

Just at Villa Park: 11 goals against off 16.4 expected goals against. 

Chelsea is tricky to figure out, given their matches have featured a lot of penalties and red cards. However, it remains encouraging that they reached two xG at home against Villa. 

For the entire season, Chelsea qualifies as a heavy positive regression candidate. The attack has scored 48 times off just under 57 expected. 

Chelsea matches have also proved very eventful. Excluding Sunday’s trip to Arsenal, Chelsea matches are averaging 3.6 combined xG per 90 minutes. 

In their first 13 road matches: 3.48 combined xG per 90 minutes. 

Finally, this fixture matches a historically profitable betting system. Since 2023, matches featuring a home dog averaging between 1.2 and 1.4 goals are 48-20 to over 2.5. 

This season: 22-8, including 19-11 against this same-game parlay. Over that three-year timeframe, matches are 6-1 with Chelsea priced as the road favorite.