Fabian Huerzler’s Brighton will emerge from the international window as a fascinating team.
The Seagulls sit second in the Premier League after 10 matches. They’ve beaten Manchester City away from home and possess a +19 goal differential, the best in the league.
Brighton’s differential is better than second-place Arsenal by nine goals. It’s only one goal smaller than the gap between Arsenal and 10th-place Hull (+0).
Entering Matchday 11, Premier League odds price Brighton at -225 to finish in the top four. Before the season began, that price was +1200.
But Brighton are a bit of a conundrum for soccer bettors. They’re a good team… but not THIS GOOD.
Regression is likely going to hit the Seagulls soon, primarily on defense. A lot has gone Brighton’s way to reach this point, but timing the regression is a more difficult proposition.
Red Card Luck & Lucky Defense Fuel Brighton’s Ascent
Brighton began the season with a 4-0 thrashing of Aston Villa. The result qualifies as one of six wins by multiple goals, including a 3-0 victory over Arsenal at home.
While Brighton are not lucky in terms of results, they’re lucky in terms of the margin.
The Seagulls scored 26 goals in their first 10 matches. Three of those games featured an opponent red card.
On Matchday 1, Brighton were already 4-0 up before Villa’s red card. Metrics properly rated the match outcome as a Brighton win, as the Seagulls amassed a +3.6 post-shot xGDiff.
On Matchday 4, Brighton traveled to Coventry City as a short road favorite. Three of their four second-half goals came after a Coventry red card.
In the first half, Brighton failed to concede off 1.28 post-shot xG. For the entire match, Brighton recorded a +5 goal differential against a +1.6 post-shot xGDiff.
Just before the break, Brighton dispatched Brentford 2-0. An Igor Thiago red card in the first half once again provided Brighton an advantage as the Seagulls posted a +2.7 psxGDiff.
Brighton bettered their opponent by 0.5 post-shot xG in six of 10 matches this year.
Brighton Goal Differential vs. Underlying Metrics
| Opponent | Goal Differential | Expected Goal Differential | Post-Shot Expected Goal Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa (H) | +4 | +3.5 | +3.6 |
| Chelsea (A) | -1 | -1.5 | 0 |
| Leeds (H) | 0 | -0.3 | -1.2 |
| Coventry City (A) | +5 | +1.3 | +1.6 |
| Arsenal (H) | +3 | -0.3 | +0.6 |
| Sunderland (A) | +2 | +0.7 | +0.9 |
| Crystal Palace (H) | +5 | +1.2 | +3.2 |
| Liverpool (A) | -2 | +0.5 | -1 |
| Man City (A) | +1 | -0.9 | -0.8 |
| Brentford (H) | +2 | +1.5 | +2.7 |
But their current +19 differential looks worse when you consider two factors. First is the red card luck. Second is the poor play by opposing keepers.
Brighton have scored 26 goals off 20.8 post-shot xG. It’s the best mark in the EPL by 0.8 psxG, but no team has seen as many opponent red cards as Brighton.
The most misleading stat on Brighton is their seven goals against. Those seven concessions have come against 13.8 expected goals and 11.2 post-shot xG.
Most of the projected regression is scheduled to come as an underdog. Of the 5.2-goal underperformance, Brighton kept out three against Arsenal and Man City.
But this is also a team that allowed one goal off 2.5 xG and 1.9 psxG to Leeds and zero off 1.4 xG/2 psxG at Coventry.
Only Leeds United (-5.5 goals under expected) has run luckier in defense than Brighton (-4.2). The Seagulls are second in the table despite sitting ninth in xGA and T-5th in post-shot xGA.
If the defense starts to regress, Brighton faces a challenge hanging onto its position.
Timing the Brighton Defensive Regression
From a betting standpoint, I’m going to keep searching for sell opportunities on Brighton’s defense.
Where consistency exists in their underlying data is defensive performances as a dog.
Brighton are 2-0-2 (W-D-L) as an underdog this season. But they’ve cumulatively posted defensive luck across all four of those matches.
The Seagulls hosted Arsenal with trips to Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City. Across all four fixtures, the defense conceded six goals, four of which came at Chelsea.
But those six concessions came against 7.4 expected goals and 6.8 post-shot xG. Against known quantities in attack, I’ll expect to get a decent price fading the Brighton defense.
On the other side of the coin, selling Brighton as a favorite requires greater thought. I’ll be interested to see how frequently Brighton is priced north of -190 on the moneyline.
Winning matches is one task. Winning by margin and justifying their market perception is a much loftier task.
Leeds and Coventry both showed Brighton’s defensive vulnerability as a favorite. Although the teams combined for one goal, it came against 3.9 post-shot xG.
With Brighton facing added fixture congestion due to a European schedule, I’m more inclined to sell their stock in future fixtures.
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