- Burnley is predicted to be a 0.5-goal home underdog against Tottenham.
- Tottenham has earned only five points in its last six EPL road matches.
- My Burnley vs Tottenham prediction is Both Teams to Score - “Yes” (-125).
After dropping points as a home favorite, Tottenham goes on the road to face Burnley.
Thomas Frank’s side lost 2-1 at home against West Ham United on Saturday. That result extended Tottenham’s winless streak to four league matches.
Burnley stole a point as massive road underdogs against Liverpool. A 1-1 draw at Anfield saw Burnley put only a single shot on target while conceding 32 total attempts to Liverpool.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Burnley vs Tottenham prediction.
Burnley vs Tottenham: Premier League Odds
Tottenham vs Burnley: Prediction
Based on Tottenham’s attacking success against Burnley and their weak defensive metrics on Saturday, my Burnley vs Tottenham prediction is Both Teams to Score – “Yes” (-125).
For all of Tottenham’s issues, Frank’s attack has failed to score only four times this season. On Matchday 1, the attack scored three goals off 2.3 expected against Burnley.
That output remains Tottenham’s best of the season. On Saturday, Tottenham racked up 1.4 xG and 1.6 psxG against West Ham, a comparably bad defense to Burnley.
On Saturday, Tottenham faces a Burnley defense that has kept only three clean sheets all year. All three came at home, but one was undeserved by expected goals.
The crux of this analysis, though, is Burnley’s attack against Tottenham’s defense.
At full strength, Tottenham allowed 2.3 post-shot xG to West Ham. This trip also forces Tottenham into a short rest spot after a Tuesday Champions League match.
Although Tottenham kept a clean sheet against Burnley on Matchday 1, the visitors generated chances.
Parker’s attack failed to score off 0.94 expected goals and 1.07 post-shot xG, per fotmob.com.
At home, Burnley generated 0.85 xG per 90 in its first 11 fixtures. Over its last four at Turf Moor, the Clarets created at least 1.1 expected goals three times.
In those 11 matches at Turf Moor, Burnley found at least one tally six times. Of the five failures, three came against teams ranked fifth or better in post-shot xG defense.
Tottenham, by comparison, enters this match ranked 11th in that category. Accordingly, I predict both attacks will find a goal at Turf Moor.
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