Chelsea vs Man United Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Chelsea will try to end a three-game EPL skid on Saturday against Manchester United.

The Blues fell 3-0 as home underdogs to Manchester City last week. After scoring in 14 straight Premier League matches, Chelsea have failed to find a tally in three straight.

Manchester United lost 2-1 at home to Leeds on Monday. The loss marked United’s second over their last four EPL fixtures following an 11-match unbeaten run.

Check out the Premier League odds and my Chelsea vs Man United prediction.

Chelsea vs Man United: Premier League Odds

Man United vs Chelsea: Prediction

Based on Chelsea’s offensive misfortune this year and Manchester United’s key defensive absence, my Chelsea vs Man United prediction is Chelsea Over 1.5 Goals (-118).

Will this be the spot where Chelsea finally see some positive offensive regression?

Only Crystal Palace has experienced worse offensive luck than Chelsea. According to underlying metrics the Blues have scored 53 goals vs. 66 expected goals, per Understat.

At home, Liam Rosenior’s side has scored 23 goals off 33 expected.

In this current skid, Chelsea have failed to score in all three matches. However, the attack amassed 4.3 xG against Newcastle, Everton and Manchester City.

Over their last five matches, Chelsea scored five goals against nine expected.

Now they get a United defense missing Lisandro Martinez. Without Martinez, United have kept only two clean sheets in 17 matches this year.

Across those 17 matches, opponents cleared 1.5 goals eight times. However, in the nine road matches within the sample, the opposition success rate rises to 66% (6/9).

Irrespective of personnel, United kept only one road clean sheet. That came against Everton, which outpaces only six sides in expected goals. For reference, Chelsea ranks first.

Given those factors, it’s my belief the market is underrating Chelsea’s attack. Accordingly, I predict the hosts will clear 1.5 goals for the ninth time at home this year.