Chelsea vs Manchester United Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Below, bettors can find Premier League odds and a Chelsea vs Manchester United prediction for their Matchday 9 fixture at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea vs Manchester United: Premier League Odds

Manchester United vs Chelsea Prediction

Based on Manchester United’s misleading attacking metrics and defensive weakness, my Chelsea vs Manchester United prediction is the Chelsea Moneyline (-120).

This prediction qualifies as more a fade of Manchester United than confidence in Chelsea. Additionally, if Joao Pedro fails to start for Chelsea, this match becomes a pass for me.

At first glance, the Manchester United attack looks like a unit that could exploit Chelsea’s volatile defense.

Excluding Matchday 8, the unit averaged 1.63 expected goals per 90 minutes and 1.3 post-shot xG per 90. However, matches against Hull City and Ipswich Town drove those outputs.

At Hull, United created 1.8 xG and 0.6 post-shot xG. On Matchday 2, the attack created 4.6 xG & post-shot xG against newly-promoted Ipswich Town.

In the five matches that followed, United never cracked 1.1 post-shot xG. It comes despite both Manchester City and Tottenham playing down a man for a spell against United.

Presumably, Chelsea would drop points if the defense fails to show up. This season, all non-wins featured multiple opponent goals that put Chelsea’s attack under pressure.

Plus, a lot of Chelsea’s weak defensive performances came against good attacks.

Arsenal, Brighton and Brentford – all top-10 attacks last year – account for 60% of Chelsea’s post-shot xGA output. Right now, bettors can’t say the same about Manchester United.

Conversely, the United defense has struggled to limit chances.

Michael Carrick’s side has yet to keep a clean sheet and, despite some easy competition, surrendered 1.43 psxG per 90 in the first seven.

If Chelsea returns a key attacking piece, I question if the visitors possess the attacking strength to keep up as underdogs.