- Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against Tottenham.
- Chelsea won 4-1 at Tottenham in the reverse fixture but were aided by red cards.
- Why bettors should expect this side to experience positive regression.
It’s a London derby with implications for the Premier League’s European spots as Tottenham travel to face Chelsea.
The Blues enter Thursday’s fixture fresh off a 2-2 draw against Aston Villa, in which they erased a two-goal deficit in the second half.
As for Tottenham, they nearly completed a comeback from down 3-0 against Arsenal but ultimately fell 3-2 at home.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Thursday’s clash.
EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Tottenham
- Chelsea Moneyline: +120
- Tottenham Moneyline: +180
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-130/-110)
EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. Tottenham
Chelsea Moneyline (+120)
This handicap is rather simple, as both teams are regression candidates at their respective venues.
This season, Chelsea hold a +4 goal differential compared to a +13.3 expected goal differential. At Stamford Bridge, it’s a +10 goal differential compared to a +16.5 expected goal differential.
Conversely, Tottenham have drastically overperformed their metrics this season, particularly on the road.
Manager Ange Postecoglou’s side has a +16 goal differential this season compared to a +3.9 expected goal differential.
Away from home, Tottenham’s sitting on a +3 goal differential against a -4.7 expected goal differential, according to fbref.com.
Bettors have also seen better results from Chelsea at home recently.
After earning all three points only once in their first seven at home, they’ve captured seven wins in their last nine and dropped all three points only once.
History also suggests the Blues are in a good spot to earn their fourth home win in their last five attempts.
Since the 2012-13 season, home favorites off a result as dogs are 71-35 SU (67%), assuming two factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was between +0 and +5
- The team’s game number is between 26 and 35
Shrink the sample down to teams that played on the road in their previous game and it becomes 62-31 SU.
Additionally, blind betting half-goal favorites in March-May that won the previous head-to-head meeting has bettors 46-25 SU, assuming that side was a dog in their last game.
Finally, there’s a case to be made that the best Tottenham can do is a draw.
Over the same timeframe, dogs that have allowed at least three goals in two straight games are 31-138 SU, assuming they were an underdog in their previous game.
Those teams only earn a result at a 40.5% clip, so I’ll back the home favorites to earn all three points as they try to chase down a European spot.
Chelsea Form
April 27 at Aston Villa: 2-2, D
April 23 at Arsenal: 0-5, L
April 20 vs. Man City: 0-1, L (FA Cup)
April 15 vs. Everton: 6-0, W
April 7 at Sheffield United: 2-2, D
Tottenham Form
April 28 vs. Arsenal: 2-3, L
April 13 at Newcastle: 0-4, L
April 7 vs. Nottingham Forest: 3-1, W
April 2 at West Ham United: 1-1, D
March 30 vs. Luton Town: 2-1, W
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
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