Chelsea vs. Tottenham Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Chelsea's Mykhailo Mudryk, second left, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Fulham and Chelsea at Craven Cottage in London, Monday, Oct. 2, 2023.
(Kin Cheung/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 30, 2024, 12:09 PM
  • Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against Tottenham.
  • Chelsea won 4-1 at Tottenham in the reverse fixture but were aided by red cards.
  • Why bettors should expect this side to experience positive regression.

It’s a London derby with implications for the Premier League’s European spots as Tottenham travel to face Chelsea. 

The Blues enter Thursday’s fixture fresh off a 2-2 draw against Aston Villa, in which they erased a two-goal deficit in the second half. 

As for Tottenham, they nearly completed a comeback from down 3-0 against Arsenal but ultimately fell 3-2 at home. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Thursday’s clash. 

EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Tottenham

  • Chelsea Moneyline: +120
  • Tottenham Moneyline: +180
  • Draw Moneyline: +300
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-130/-110)

EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. Tottenham

Chelsea Moneyline (+120)

This handicap is rather simple, as both teams are regression candidates at their respective venues. 

This season, Chelsea hold a +4 goal differential compared to a +13.3 expected goal differential. At Stamford Bridge, it’s a +10 goal differential compared to a +16.5 expected goal differential. 

Conversely, Tottenham have drastically overperformed their metrics this season, particularly on the road. 

Manager Ange Postecoglou’s side has a +16 goal differential this season compared to a +3.9 expected goal differential. 

Away from home, Tottenham’s sitting on a +3 goal differential against a -4.7 expected goal differential, according to 

Bettors have also seen better results from Chelsea at home recently. 

After earning all three points only once in their first seven at home, they’ve captured seven wins in their last nine and dropped all three points only once. 

History also suggests the Blues are in a good spot to earn their fourth home win in their last five attempts. 

Since the 2012-13 season, home favorites off a result as dogs are 71-35 SU (67%), assuming two factors:

  • The previous head-to-head result was between +0 and +5
  • The team’s game number is between 26 and 35

Shrink the sample down to teams that played on the road in their previous game and it becomes 62-31 SU. 

Additionally, blind betting half-goal favorites in March-May that won the previous head-to-head meeting has bettors 46-25 SU, assuming that side was a dog in their last game. 

Finally, there’s a case to be made that the best Tottenham can do is a draw. 

Over the same timeframe, dogs that have allowed at least three goals in two straight games are 31-138 SU, assuming they were an underdog in their previous game. 

Those teams only earn a result at a 40.5% clip, so I’ll back the home favorites to earn all three points as they try to chase down a European spot. 

Chelsea Form 

April 27 at Aston Villa: 2-2, D

April 23 at Arsenal: 0-5, L

April 20 vs. Man City: 0-1, L (FA Cup)

April 15 vs. Everton: 6-0, W

April 7 at Sheffield United: 2-2, D

Tottenham Form

April 28 vs. Arsenal: 2-3, L

April 13 at Newcastle: 0-4, L

April 7 vs. Nottingham Forest: 3-1, W

April 2 at West Ham United: 1-1, D

March 30 vs. Luton Town: 2-1, W

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.