Chelsea vs West Ham Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Suddenly upstart West Ham United travels to face Chelsea on Matchday 24. 

West Ham has won two straight games against Sunderland and Tottenham. Still, the Hammers sit five points adrift of 17th, which would guarantee the team safety. 

Chelsea secured a 3-1 win over Crystal Palace on Matchday 23. It marked the second straight league win for new manager Liam Rosenior and lifted Chelsea to fifth. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Chelsea vs West Ham prediction. 

Chelsea vs West Ham: Premier League Odds

West Ham vs Chelsea: Prediction

Based on Chelsea’s attacking success at West Ham and the short rest spot for the hosts, my Chelsea vs West Ham prediction is Over 3.5 Goals (+130). 

I don’t buy that the West Ham defense is suddenly fixed. The unit benefited from playing two of the worst attacks in the Premier League in consecutive matches. 

At Tottenham, the defense surrendered 1.65 expected goals. That output is generally indicative of West Ham’s recent road outputs. 

West Ham surrendered at least two expected goals in seven of the last eight road matches. Two of those visits – at Bournemouth and Man City – saw West Ham allow over three xG. 

Now the unit has to face a better Chelsea attack that dominated the reverse fixture. 

Chelsea scored five goals at West Ham on Matchday 2. By underlying metrics, the Blues created 2.74 xG and 5.14 post-shot xG, per fotmob.com. 

At home, Chelsea have recorded strong metrics of late. Over the last four at Stamford Bridge: 2.14 expected goals per 90 minutes, including 2.64 against a comparable Everton defense. 

All of that said, West Ham should contribute to the total as well. 

Chelsea faces a Wednesday trip to Naples for a crucial Champions League fixture. Given the match’s importance, it wouldn’t be surprising to see rotation in the defense. 

Additionally, the Chelsea defense has surrendered at least one expected goal in 11 straight matches. 

The West Ham attack also qualifies as a positive regression candidate. Entering this match, they’ve created 28 xG but scored only 27 goals. 

If the positive regression arrives, I predict goals flow at Stamford Bridge.