Newcastle vs. Crystal Palace Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Newcastle's Alexander Isak during the English Premier League soccer match between Newcastle and Aston Villa.
(Steve Luciano/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 22, 2024, 6:23 PM
  • Newcastle United is a -0.5-goal favorite against Crystal Palace.
  • Newcastle United earned a 4-0 home win in the reverse fixture.
  • Why bettors should look at the total for Wednesday’s fixture.

Coming off two straight Premier League wins, Crystal Palace welcomes Newcastle United to Selhurst Park on Wednesday. 

Manager Oliver Glasner’s side captured all three points in a 5-2 thriller on Sunday at home. That came after a 1-0 win at Liverpool in the previous game. 

However, they’ll face a Newcastle side that’s unbeaten in their last four games (W3-D1) and thrashed Crystal Palace 4-0 at St. James’ Park. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Newcastle United vs. Crystal Palace

  • Newcastle United Moneyline: +140
  • Crystal Palace Moneyline: +175
  • Draw Moneyline: +260
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-165/+120)

EPL Prediction – Newcastle United vs. Crystal Palace

Total Over 2.5 Goals (-165) 

Although it’s a heavy price to lay on Wednesday, there’s ample evidence supporting a high-scoring contest in London. 

Bettors have now witnessed six Crystal Palace matches where both Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise played at least an hour. 

Glasner’s side has scored in all six of those games, with five clearing 2.5 goals. The lone failure? Their 1-0 win over Liverpool in a game that saw 4.7 combined expected goals. 

Their underlying metrics take a big jump as well with that duo available. 

Sample the six aforementioned matches, and bettors will find Palace created 1.53 expected goals per 90 minutes and 1.77 post-shot expected goals per 90, per 

For the entire season, the Eagles are sitting on 1.21 xG per 90 minutes and 1.2 psxG per 90 minutes. 

That’s going to help them tremendously against Newcastle United, a side that ranks 15th in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes. 

Plus, Palace created 1.2 xG at St. James’ Park without Eze and Olise. Expect them to contribute a goal at minimum with two not outside the realm of possibility. 

All that said, Palace has been a mess defensively since losing Marc Guehi to injury, particularly against good competition. 

Since losing Guehi on February 3, Palace has played four games against teams averaging north of 1.5 npxG per 90 minutes (Newcastle averages 1.75). 

They’ve allowed at least three goals in three of four and at least 1.4 expected goals in all four matches. 

Crystal Palace has also struggled immensely against Newcastle United. In their last three meetings, Newcastle has created 2.16 xG per 90 vs. Palace. 

Finally, overs are 65% this season when a home dog faces a team averaging at least 1.7 goals per game, including 5-2 when Newcastle is the road team. 

Newcastle United Form 

April 13 vs. Tottenham: 4-0, W

April 6 at Fulham: 1-0, W

April 2 vs. Everton: 1-1, D

March 30 vs. West Ham United: 4-3, W

March 16 at Man City: 0-2, L (FA Cup)

Crystal Palace Form

April 21 vs. West Ham United: 5-2, W

April 14 at Liverpool: 1-0, W

April 6 vs. Man City: 2-4, L

April 2 at Bournemouth: 0-1, L

March 30 at Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
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About the Author

Nick Hennion

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.