Ipswich Town vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Below, bettors can find Premier League odds and an Ipswich Town vs Liverpool prediction.

Ipswich Town vs Liverpool: Premier League Odds

Liverpool vs Ipswich Town Prediction

Based on Ipswich Town’s defensive metrics at Manchester United and Liverpool’s attacking additions, my Ipswich Town vs Liverpool prediction is Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals (+155). 

Ipswich surrendered five goals at Old Trafford on Sunday. Even with the switch to a friendlier home environment, it’s difficult to envision a radically different outcome.

United benefitted from a penalty and controversial own goal en route to five tallies. But Michael Carrick’s side posted impressive underlying metrics without those two tallies.

Own goals carry a zero expected goals rating. Without that tally and Bruno Fernandes’ penalty kick, the Red Devils still managed to generate four expected goals, per FotMob.

On 52 minutes, Bryan Mbeumo failed to score on a 0.93 xG attempt. In fact, United missed a majority (5) of their nine big scoring chances against Ipswich.

Now the Tractor Boys return home to face Andoni Iraola’s Liverpool. The Reds failed to clear this benchmark in two games, but ran slightly unlucky in their opening pair.

Liverpool scored a pair of goals against both Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest. However, their four tallies came against 4.3 xG and 4.7 post-shot xG.

The sample includes a penalty kick, but Ipswich qualifies as the easiest opponent for Liverpool thus far. Additionally, they’ll likely incorporate Bradley Barcola into the fold come Friday.

Iraola’s side impressed me at home as a -200 favorite vs. Nottingham Forest. The attack scored twice off 1.6 expected goals and two post-shot xG.

Comparatively, Ipswich rates out as a worse defense than Forest. Last season, the Tricky Trees finished 17th in expected goals against per 90 minutes.

We’ve also seen Liverpool clear this benchmark against Ipswich during the latter’s last EPL campaign. Over two matches, Liverpool scored six goals off 5.4 post-shot xG, or 2.7 per 90.

Those factors lead me to predict Liverpool clears this benchmark at a higher frequency than their 39.2% implied probability.