- Man City is predicted to be a 2.5-goal home favorite against Wolves.
- Man City has won 24 of its last 27 EPL home matches following a league loss.
- My Man City vs Wolves prediction is the Wolves Goal Line (+2.5, -175).
After a poor performance against rivals Man United, Man City returns home to face Wolves.Â
Pep Guardiola’s side dropped all three points in a 2-0 loss at Old Trafford on Saturday. Now City returns home, where they’ve won eight of 11 league matches this season.Â
Wolves played to a 0-0 draw against Newcastle on Sunday, their fourth straight result in the league. Earlier this season, Wolves fell 4-0 as home underdogs to Man City.Â
Check out the Premier League odds and my Man City vs Wolves prediction.Â
Man City vs Wolves: Premier League Odds
Wolves vs Man City: Prediction
Based on Wolves’ defensive success as a big road underdog and their rest advantage against Man City, my Man City vs Wolves prediction is the Wolves Spread (+2.5, -175).Â
Since appointing Rob Edwards, Wolves played well as big road underdogs. Albeit in a limited sample, Wolves covered the spread against both Arsenal and Liverpool.Â
Neither of those performances proved fluky either. At Liverpool, Wolves fell 2-1 but lost the expected goals battle by only 0.3.Â
At Arsenal – the closest comparison to Manchester City – Wolves lost 2-1 and stayed within 0.8 expected goals.Â
Even by post-shot expected goals, Wolves still deserved to cover both spreads. Across both fixtures, Wolves recorded a +0.2 differential at Arsenal and a -0.3 differential at Liverpool.Â
Now Wolves gets a City side that faces a Tuesday Champions League match in Norway. Then, City returns home for a Saturday league match before another UCL fixture next Wednesday.Â
That congestion could impede City’s ability to score heavily. Additionally, Wolves remain a positive regression candidate defensively.Â
Including Sunday’s match against Newcastle, Wolves have allowed 41 goals off just over 29 expected. Away from home, the defense surrendered 18 goals off 14 expected.Â
Only five Premier League sides have surrendered fewer expected goals on the road than Wolves.Â
Pair that record with Wolves’ ATS success against good sides, and I predict the visitors stay within this number at City.Â
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