Man United vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

A pair of sides contending for European placements meet on Sunday at Old Trafford. 

Manchester United suffered its first defeat under Michael Carrick. As slight road favorites to Newcastle, United lost 2-1 thanks to a late winner from the hosts. 

Now, the Red Devils return home to face a reeling Aston Villa side. Villa has won just twice in its last eight Premier League games, losing 4-1 at home to Chelsea in its last outing. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Man United vs Aston Villa prediction. 

Man United vs Aston Villa: Premier League Odds

Aston Villa vs Man United: Prediction

Based on Manchester United’s scheduling advantage and Villa’s lucky road record this year, my Man United vs Aston Villa prediction is the Man United Moneyline (-130). 

Above all else, the scheduling spot presents a massive challenge to Aston Villa. Unai Emery’s side faces a Europa League tie in France on Thursday before traveling to Old Trafford. 

Villa will enter that match as a massive negative regression candidate in the Premier League. Through 29 matches, Villa holds a +5 goal differential against a -6 expected goal differential. 

Most of that overperformance came away from home. As it stands, Villa owns a -1 road goal differential compared to -6.5 expected goal differential. 

Conversely, Manchester United has run unlucky against its underlying metrics. Through 29 matches, United owns a +11 goal differential against a +18.5 xGDiff. 

Even with one of the strongest home records in the league – W9-D3-L2 – United has still run unlucky. At Old Trafford, the Red Devils posted a +11 differential compared to a +15.8 xGDiff. 

Prior to a fluky road loss at Newcastle, Michael Carrick had United playing incredibly well. Before that defeat, United posted an 11-match unbeaten run. 

The run featured some fortune – red cards by Tottenham and Crystal Palace – but this remains a side with dominant performances over Manchester City and Fulham. 

With an 11-day rest period between fixtures, United should effectively expose an overrated Aston Villa side. 

Lastly, teams coming off a blowout loss rarely turn around a result quickly. 

Since 2012, home favorites between -175 and +108 are 23-4 against a dog off a three-goal defeat, assuming the favorite closed as a favorite in its last match. 

Based on those factors, I predict United will take all three points and extend Villa’s poor run of form.