Below, bettors can find Premier League odds and a Man United vs Man City prediction.
Man United vs Man City: Premier League Odds
Man City vs Man United Prediction
Based on Man City’s misleading defensive record and Man United’s success in the last meeting, my Man United vs Man City prediction is Man United Over 1.5 Goals (+115).
Despite running unlucky in defense at Crystal Palace, Man City enters this match with a fraudulent defense.
On Matchday 1 against Bournemouth, the unit surrendered one goal off two post-shot expected goals. Luck once again aided City on Matchday 3 against Coventry City as a lofty favorite.
City kept a clean sheet as a -500 home favorite. However, the defense conceded 1.4 expected goals and 1.8 post-shot xG.
Cumulatively, City has allowed only two goals vs. 3.8 post-shot xG this season. It could lead to a misleading market price regarding their true defensive quality.
If there’s a slight concern here, it’s that bettors have yet to see Manchester United operate as a market underdog. Additionally, United face a short turnaround from a Thursday home match.
However, United thoroughly dominated Manchester City as home dogs when these teams last met.
In Michael Carrick’s first match as full-time manager, United won 2-0. The attack generated 2.3 expected goals and 1.8 post-shot xG against their Mancunian rivals, per FotMob.
Most of that attacking success came in the second half. United, after the break, created 1.9 xG and 1.6 post-shot xG, with both goals coming after the hour mark.
So far this season, United’s attack really only looked good as a big favorite. On Matchday 3 as a consensus +100 favorite at Everton, the attack scored twice off 0.7 xG & 0.9 post-shot xG.
It renders this prediction more against Manchester City than on Manchester United. Ultimately, my belief is United clears this benchmark at a higher rate than their 46.5% chance suggests. ‘
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