- Newcastle is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Fulham.
- Fulham has conceded at least once in 21 straight EPL matches as an underdog.
- My Newcastle vs Fulham prediction is the Newcastle United Moneyline (-160).
Newcastle will try to bounce back from a defeat to Brighton as home favorites against Fulham.
Eddie Howe’s side fell 2-1 on Matchday 8 at the Amex. That result ended a two-match winning streak in all competitions for Newcastle, which has yet to earn a road win this year.
Fulham also dropped all three points in a 1-0 home loss to Arsenal. That result marks the third straight defeat for Fulham in league play with Marco Silva’s side sitting 14th.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Newcastle vs Fulham prediction.
Newcastle vs Fulham: Premier League Odds
Fulham vs Newcastle: Prediction
Based on Newcastle’s potential positive regression at home and Fulham’s lackluster attacking metrics of late, my Newcastle vs Fulham prediction is the Newcastle Moneyline (-160).
Fading Fulham offers a slightly risky proposition. Although they’ve dropped three in a row, the metrics suggest it has come with bad luck involved.
Over the last three fixtures, Silva’s side owns a -5 goal differential against a -1.7 expected goal differential. By post-shot xG, it only rises to -3.
The issue? Newcastle enters Saturday’s match a positive regression candidate at home.
Howe’s team owns a +1 home differential compared to a +3 expected goal differential. As a home favorite, Newcastle is 2-0 SU with a +4 expected goal differential.
Some of that can be attributed to the competition. Newcastle dominated Nottingham Forest and Wolves, who occupy two of the three relegation spots.
But Newcastle has also taken the lead in three straight at home. The lone failure came against title threat Liverpool.
Right now, Fulham lack the attacking talent to come from behind and steal points.
Only five teams have created fewer xG than Fulham. Only one team (Wolves) has created fewer post-shot xG, per fbref.com.
Since last season, Newcastle has dropped points 11 times in 32 matches when allowing one or fewer goals. Conversely, they’ve picked up points only twice when allowing two or more.
As constructed, Fulham falls into the former bucket. Additionally, history suggests Saturday offers an opportunity for Newcastle to earn all three points.
Since 2012, home favorites off a one-goal defeat between -240 and -111 are 63-15, assuming two factors:
- The underdog’s previous game margin falls between -1 and +1
- The underdog’s win percentage falls between 5% and 38%
Just when those underdogs lost by one goal: 23-5 SU for the favorites.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Nov. 8 | 7:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Everton | Fulham | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| West Ham United | Burnley | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Nov. 8 | 12:30 p.m. | Stadium of Light |
| Chelsea | Wolves | Nov. 8 | 3 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Brentford | Newcastle United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Nov. 9 | 11:30 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 4-3-3 | 55.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 2-1-2 | 60.0% |
| Aston Villa | 3-5-2 | 40.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Bournemouth | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Brentford | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Burnley | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Chelsea | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% |
| Everton | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-2-2 | 40.0% |
| Fulham | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Leeds United | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Liverpool | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 80.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Manchester City | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Manchester United | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Newcastle United | 2-6-2 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Sunderland | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 5-0-0 | 100.0% |
| West Ham United | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Arsenal | 8-1-1 | 25 | 15 |
| Manchester City | 6-1-3 | 19 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 5-3-2 | 18 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 6-0-4 | 18 | 4 |
| Sunderland | 5-3-2 | 18 | 4 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 5-2-3 | 17 | 9 |
| Chelsea | 5-2-3 | 17 | 7 |
| Manchester United | 5-2-3 | 17 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 4-4-2 | 16 | 5 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-3-3 | 15 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | 4-3-3 | 15 | -1 |
| Brentford | 4-1-5 | 13 | -1 |
| Newcastle United | 3-3-4 | 12 | -1 |
| Everton | 3-3-4 | 12 | -3 |
| Fulham | 3-2-5 | 11 | -2 |
| Leeds United | 3-2-5 | 11 | -8 |
| Burnley | 3-1-6 | 10 | -7 |
| West Ham United | 2-1-7 | 7 | -11 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1-3-6 | 6 | -12 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-2-8 | 2 | -15 |
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The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
