Premier League Predictions & Picks for 2026-27 Season

Below, soccer bettors can find my Premier League predictions for the 2026 season based on Premier League odds.

Best Premier League Picks 2026-27

Premier League Winners: Manchester City (+275)

Arsenal used elite defensive play to earn a 2025 league title. The issue? They’ve propped up that performance with a lackluster attack, leaving thin margins.

Mikel Arteta’s side won 14 of 26 matches (54%) by a single goal. The attack ranked third in expected goals, but overperformed its xG output by 5.4 goals.

City led the Premier League in expected goals last year. More impressive is that City and Arsenal earned the same number of penalty kicks.

Plus, the perennial Premier League winners produced a disproportionate number of unlucky results.

City drew nine matches to Arsenal’s seven, losing an additional game. But they won the expected goals battle in six of those nine draws.

Across all nine, City produced a +0 goal differential against a +5.3 xGDiff in those matches. The attack ran particularly unlucky, scoring 12 goals off 17 expected.

Lastly, I predict City takes a step forward against an easier-than-projected bottom-half. In 2023-24, City took 57 of a possible 60 points against the 10 worst teams.

Over the last two years: 42 points and 46 points. Those factors lead me to predict City reclaims the Premier League crown this season.

Top-4 Finish: Chelsea (-110)

Chelsea will enjoy a sizable advantage over their fellow Champions League chasers.

Manchester United, Aston Villa and Liverpool all play in continental competitions next year. Chelsea, under new manager Xabi Alonso, will not feature in such competitions.

It leaves me bullish on Chelsea seeing some positive regression based on last year’s underlying data. Despite finishing 10th, Chelsea ranked sixth in expected points last year.

The Blues ran particularly unlucky in attack, scoring 58 goals off 72.2 expected.

Plaguing Chelsea last year was an inability to hold leads. Three home losses saw Chelsea score the first goal before dropping all three points (Aston Villa, Brighton and Sunderland).

Chelsea also blew a 2-0 lead against Leeds and allowed a stoppage-time equalizer to Burnley. That’s a potential 15 points if you consolidate the lead that ultimately became two points.

Had Chelsea taken maximum points in those five games, they would have finished fourth.

If Alonso schemes together a better formation that leads to positive regression, Chelsea should take a big step forward next year.

Top-6 Prediction: Newcastle United (+250)

[Writer’s Note: This analysis was written prior to Eddie Howe stepping down as Newcastle manager. Confidence in the prediction takes a big hit with a new manager in place]. 

Concerns exist around Anthony Gordon’s departure and the (potential) departure of Bruno Guimaraes. Beyond those factors, Newcastle offers a higher ceiling than these odds suggest.

Newcastle plays an aggressive pressing style under Eddie Howe. As matches pile up, they’ve accumulated fewer points compared to less intensive seasons.

It happened last year as the Magpies competed in the Champions League for the second time in three years.

Year over year, the club dropped from 66 points to 49 points. Here are their point totals over the last four seasons: 71-60-66-49.

The two seasons above 65.5 saw Newcastle focus entirely on domestic competitions. It will happen to them again this year after they finished 12th in the EPL last year.

An encouraging sign exists in Newcastle based on last year’s data.

Two years ago, Howe’s team took 23 leads (10th) and turned 20 into wins. Last year, they took 24 leads (6th), but turned only 14 into wins. Seven losses from winning positions led the EPL.

It came during a season where Newcastle underperformed expectations. The Magpies took 49 points (12th) vs. 55 expected points (10th).

Incredibly, Newcastle dropped all three points seven times at home last year. By contrast, the team dropped all three points 10 times in the three prior seasons COMBINED.

Those elements, along with a lighter schedule due to no continental competition, lead me to predict a resurgent campaign for Newcastle.

To Finish Bottom: Hull City (+110)

Hull City qualifies as one of the worst teams to join the Premier League from the Championship in recent memory.

The newcomers finished sixth in the Championship with a +4 goal differential. It reached the English top-flight via the promotion play-off win over Middlesbrough, who finished fifth on +25.

Fourteen of Hull’s 21 wins came by a single goal. Historically, that stat offers the easiest regression case amongst teams joining the Premier League.

More concerning is how Hull performed in relation to its underlying metrics. A +4 goal differential came against a -20.4 expected goal differential, before taking penalties into account.

A large chunk of that overperformance came in defense, but the attack still scored 70 goals off 59.7 expected goals, which ranked ninth in the Championship.

Defensively, Hull surrendered 66 goals against 80.1 expected. The latter figure ranked 23rd in the second tier.

As Hull prepares to take a step up in competition, the regression indicators should hit them like a ton of bricks.

Accordingly, I predict they will find the bottom of the table and get relegated back to the Championship.