- West Ham is predicted to be a +0.5-goal home underdog against Bournemouth.
- Bournemouth have played 10 straight road matches that have cleared 2.5 goals.
- My West Ham vs. Bournemouth prediction is the total over 2.5 goals.
Looking to bolster its chances of reaching the European spots, Bournemouth travels to London to face West Ham.
The Cherries sit 10th in the league table, only five points behind a Champions League spot. However, prior to the international break, Bournemouth dropped points in four straight.
West Ham finds itself in no man’s land. They’re 16th in the table with no risk of relegation despite only two wins in their previous five matches.
Check out the Premier League odds and my West Ham vs. Bournemouth prediction.
West Ham vs. Bournemouth: Premier League Odds
- West Ham United Moneyline: +210
- Bournemouth Moneyline: +120
- Draw Moneyline: +250
- Game Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-145/+105)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-165), “No” (+120)
West Ham vs. Bournemouth Prediction
Based on Bournemouth’s high-scoring history away from home and the metrics from the first meeting, my West Ham vs. Bournemouth prediction is Over 2.5 Goals (-145).
How a Bournemouth match features a total below three goals is a total mystery to me. Away from home, this team has played 10 straight games that have cleared 2.5 goals.
Irrespective of venue, 18 of Bournemouth’s first 29 matches cleared 2.5 goals.
But the story of this team’s 2024 campaign must be that they’ve wildly underperformed meaningful metrics.
Not including Wednesday’s match against Ipswich Town, Bournemouth matches have featured 84 goals against 91.6 expected goals and 99.5 post-shot expected goals, per fbref.com.
A 1-1 draw against West Ham appears discouraging. However, that match featured four expected goals and 3.49 post-shot xG, per fotmob.com.
While West Ham’s nine matches under Graham Potter have featured only 2.17 xG per 90, they’ve faced only one team fourth or better in post-shot xGF over that span.
That match – a trip to Chelsea – featured three goals off 2.8 xG.
History also likes this match to clear 2.5 goals.
Since last year, matches featuring a total of 2.5 goals are 37-15 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The road team’s average number of goals scored falls between 1.5 and 2.1
- The road team’s average number of goals allowed falls between 1.2 and 1.5
The system also works at 3.5 goals with eight Bournemouth road matches fitting either designation. All eight cleared 2.5 goals, with seven clearing their pregame total, including all four set at 2.5 goals.
As a result, I like goals on Saturday at London Stadium.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Brentford | May. 1 | 2:30 p.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Wolves | May. 2 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Fulham | May. 3 | 7:30 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Everton | Ipswich Town | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Leicester City | Southampton | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Arsenal | Bournemouth | May. 3 | 12:30 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | Manchester United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Brighton | Newcastle United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| West Ham | Tottenham | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Chelsea | Liverpool | May. 4 | 11:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | May. 5 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-14-2 | 55.9% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 18-15-1 | 54.4% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-3 | 39.7% | 6-9-2 | 41.2% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-6 | 58.8% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Fulham | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-19-2 | 41.2% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Leicester City | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-7-1 | 55.9% |
| Liverpool | 16-16-2 | 50.0% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-16-4 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% |
| Newcastle United | 20-13-1 | 60.3% | 12-5-0 | 70.6% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-4 | 41.2% | 3-12-2 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-21-1 | 36.8% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-2 | 52.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 18-13-3 | 57.4% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-7-2 | 82 | 48 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Newcastle United | 19-5-10 | 62 | 21 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Chelsea | 17-9-8 | 60 | 19 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Fulham | 14-9-11 | 51 | 4 |
| Brighton | 13-13-8 | 51 | 1 |
| Bournemouth | 13-11-10 | 50 | 12 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Wolves | 12-5-17 | 41 | -10 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-15 | 39 | -8 |
| Everton | 8-14-12 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-19 | 37 | 6 |
| West Ham | 9-9-16 | 36 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-21 | 21 | -41 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-24 | 18 | -49 |
| Southampton | 2-5-27 | 11 | -55 |
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