- Wolves is predicted to be a +1.5-goal home underdog against Man City.
- Manchester City has won nine of its last 10 EPL matches against Wolves.
- My Wolves vs Man City prediction is for Manchester City to cover the spread.
After a disappointing league season, Manchester City opens the 2025 campaign with a trip to Wolves.
Injuries marred Pep Guardiola’s City last year. Ballon D’Or winner Rodri missed most of the season, while striker Erling Haaland also missed a big chunk of time.
Those injury concerns dropped City to third after four straight titles. The good news? City ended 2024 on a 10-match unbeaten run (W7-D3).
Check out the Premier League odds and my Wolves vs Man City prediction.
Wolves vs Man City: Premier League Odds
Man City vs Wolves: Prediction
Assuming Rodri features in Guardiola’s Starting XI at Wolves, my Wolves vs Man City prediction is the Manchester City Spread (-1.5, +120).
Update: Rodri will not appear in Saturday’s match at Wolves. The 2024 Ballon D’or winner is schedule to be sidelined until September, according to manager Pep Guardiola.
City failed to cover this number in either meeting against Wolves last year, despite taking six points from six.
However, I question if the Wolves attack can keep up with a fully healthy City offense.
Rayan Ait-Nouri and Matheus Cunha both left in the transfer window.
Cumulatively, that duo accounted for 31% of Wolves’ non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists last year, per fbref.com.
If Rodri plays, it immediately transforms City’s defensive stature. Here’s City’s non-penalty xGA per 90 by year since 2019:
- 2019: 0.91
- 2020: 0.59
- 2021: 0.63
- 2022: 0.78
- 2023: 0.87
- 2024: 1.17
The Spaniard started 30 or more league matches in all but one of those seasons. If you guessed 2024 as the outlier, you’re correct.
Over the last two seasons, Rodri started only one match for City against Wolves in May 2024.
City captured a 5-1 win with a +1.81 non-penalty expected goal differential and +2.9 non-penalty post-shot xGDiff, per fotmob.com.
In fairness to Wolves, that match came at home for Manchester City. Even with Rodri, City tend to produce more blowouts in Manchester.
That said, history suggests this is a good spot to back the visitors to – at minimum – earn all three points.
Since 2012, road favorites in games 1-4 are 79-33 SU, assuming their previous head-to-head margin falls between -5 and +2.
When those teams are priced at -175 or higher: 19-5 SU with a 1.3-goal average margin of victory.
Of those 19 teams that won, 12 covered this number (63%). Comparatively, the current price on City to cover implies a probability of 45.5%.
Premier League Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Nov. 8 | 7:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Everton | Fulham | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| West Ham United | Burnley | Nov. 8 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Nov. 8 | 12:30 p.m. | Stadium of Light |
| Chelsea | Wolves | Nov. 8 | 3 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Brentford | Newcastle United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds United | Nov. 9 | 9 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Liverpool | Nov. 9 | 11:30 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 4-3-3 | 55.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 2-1-2 | 60.0% |
| Aston Villa | 3-5-2 | 40.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Bournemouth | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Brentford | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Burnley | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Chelsea | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% |
| Everton | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 1-2-2 | 40.0% |
| Fulham | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Leeds United | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Liverpool | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 3-1-1 | 80.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Manchester City | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Manchester United | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Newcastle United | 2-6-2 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 1-3-1 | 30.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% |
| Sunderland | 7-2-1 | 75.0% | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 3-1-1 | 70.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 5-0-0 | 100.0% |
| West Ham United | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 2-3-0 | 40.0% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Arsenal | 8-1-1 | 25 | 15 |
| Manchester City | 6-1-3 | 19 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 5-3-2 | 18 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 6-0-4 | 18 | 4 |
| Sunderland | 5-3-2 | 18 | 4 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 5-2-3 | 17 | 9 |
| Chelsea | 5-2-3 | 17 | 7 |
| Manchester United | 5-2-3 | 17 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 4-4-2 | 16 | 5 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 4-3-3 | 15 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | 4-3-3 | 15 | -1 |
| Brentford | 4-1-5 | 13 | -1 |
| Newcastle United | 3-3-4 | 12 | -1 |
| Everton | 3-3-4 | 12 | -3 |
| Fulham | 3-2-5 | 11 | -2 |
| Leeds United | 3-2-5 | 11 | -8 |
| Burnley | 3-1-6 | 10 | -7 |
| West Ham United | 2-1-7 | 7 | -11 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1-3-6 | 6 | -12 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-2-8 | 2 | -15 |
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